RaceBets Offer – 2.00 Curragh (Sunday)

There’s a busy day of horse racing at Curragh today and RaceBets are getting in on the action! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 2.00 at Curragh, RaceBets will refund our stake as a bonus, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.56 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed today (Sunday 11th September 2016) on the fixed odds market only.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.04…

racebets logo

Place £25.00 on Intisaab @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £87.50

smarkets white

Lay £24.04 on Intisaab @ 4.70 = Potential liability of £88.94

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Intisaab wins + £87.50 – £88.94 = £1.44 loss
Intisaab places 2nd or 3rd – £25.00 + £23.56 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 bonus) = £18.56 profit
Intisaab finishes outside top 3 – £25.00 + £23.56 = £1.44 loss

So, we will make a nice profit of £18.56 if Intisaab places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.44 on any other outcome. Risking £1.44 to make a profit of £18.56 gives us effective odds of 13.89, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, the refund will be credited as bonus cash, which will need to be wagered 3 times prior to withdrawal. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% of the £25.00 bonus as cash, so £20.00.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Above The Rest at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.40. Above The Rest finished outside the top 3, meaning I made a loss of £1.96 on this RaceBets offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.