It’s comforting to know that as the Premier League takes an international break, we can still rely on Sky Bet to give us a cracking offer on the horse racing. Simply place a bet on the 1.45 September Stakes at Kempton race course on Saturday and if it loses, Sky Bet will refund us as a free bet up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.30 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
For this particular offer, we need to select a horse that has a decent chance of losing so that we receive the free bet refund. It therefore makes sense to place our qualifying bet on a horse with long odds. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the workings below and update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £10.00 on Firefighting @ 11.00 = Potential profit of £100.00
Lay £9.18 on Firefighting @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £101.00
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Firefighting wins | +£100.00 – £101.00 = £1.00 loss |
| Firefighting doesn’t win | -£10.00 + £9.00 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £7.00 profit |
So as things stand we will make £7.00 profit if Firefighting doesn’t win and a loss of £1.00 if he does win. It’s not often that we are able to do this but by placing a further back bet on Firefighting, we can guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome…
Place £0.73 on Firefighting @ 11.00 = Potential profit of £7.30
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Firefighting wins | -£1.00 + £7.30 = £6.30 profit |
| Firefighting doesn’t win | £7.00 – £0.73 = £6.27 profit |
So regardless of the result of the 1.45 September Stakes and provided we can get good lay odds, we should make a guaranteed minimum profit of £6.27 on this Kempton offer!
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* The lay odds for this race were pretty poor so I ended up placing my qualifying bet on Firefighting and letting it run without a lay bet. Firefighting didn’t win, meaning I lost £2.00 on this offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.