Sky Bet Offer – 1.25 Cheltenham (Sunday)

January 1, 2017 / Horse Racing / 22 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 01/01/2017 : 13:25

Guaranteed profit
£12.00+

There’s a big day of horse racing at Cheltenham today and Sky Bet are getting involved with another of their First Race Specials! Simply place a bet on the 1.25 at Cheltenham and if it loses, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £12.00+ and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free offer. We therefore need to select a horse with long odds. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £16.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £20.00 free bet refund, should our horse lose…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:
+ Free bet

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £16.80…

skybet

Place £20.00 on O O Seven @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £120.00

smarkets white

Lay £16.80 on O O Seven @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £107.53

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

O O Seven wins + £120.00 – £107.53 = £12.47 profit
O O Seven doesn't win - £20.00 + £16.47 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £12.47 profit

So, regardless of the result of the race and with some good odds, we should make a guaranteed profit of £12.00+ on this Sky Bet offer!

If our selection loses, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours of the race ending and will be valid for 3 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Whisper at back odds of 3.50 and lay odds of 3.50. Whisper won the race at a starting price (SP) of 3.75, meaning I made a profit of £16.21 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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22 Comments

  1. alfonso

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    This offer is very good...I think after of this it will come a round of gubbings

  2. Bob (bobster)

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    Yeah looks like a gubbing tempter - stay away

  3. Chris

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    In your possible outcomes Matt where do you get your +£16.47 from if the horse does not win and happy new year to you

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 1, 2017
      / Reply

      Happy New Year Chris! If your horse doesn't win, you will win your £16.80 lay bet. We need to deduct 2% commission from winning lay bets, which gives us £16.47.

  4. Tony

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    What are you guys on about? Easy money if you ask me

  5. Tony

    Tony

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    You're gonna get gubbed sooner or later, what if you miss this offer and on the next day you receive the long-dreaded email. Take a fork and have a slice of the pie while you can.

  6. Tony

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    Any reason you went with 007 and not Whisper?

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 1, 2017
      / Reply

      I've mentioned it in the post mate... Due to the lay odds being poor at the time of writing, I've used fictional odds in the example and I'll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the race.

  7. giveitago

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    I went for clan des obeaux. I know it guarantees less profit but thought it would make me blend in with the many mug punters going for the favourite

  8. Gaz_1966

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    'Whisper' 4.5/4.5smarkets at 12.20pm people

  9. naomi

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    o o Seven has dropped out! i had backed and laid this now what happens please? my bets still show current on markets and Sky bet, will they just get refunded after the race? thanks

    • Martin

      January 1, 2017
      / Reply

      How does this also affect the other horses? I backed Whisper, hoping it doesn't mess anything up.

      • Sunny

        Sunny

        January 1, 2017
        / Reply

        It may benefit you if Whisper wins Martin. Sky will most likely pay out Whisper at the odds you originally backed him at (I've never had them actually apply reduced odds in a case like this, they've always paid me at the full odds I backed at), whereas the liability you pay out on Smarkets will be at reduced odds, so you'd make greater profit overall!

        • Martin

          January 1, 2017
          / Reply

          I didn't realise that Smarkets did something similar. I got a 10p reduction per pound (as per rule 4). Think I made £10 on the offer so not bad.

    • Nick j

      January 1, 2017
      / Reply

      Naomi, if you back and lay another horse then you will still qualify for the offer.

      It states it on the T&Cs if you click on the link at the bottom.

  10. Gwales

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    10p rule with sky applies now..

  11. Gaz_1966

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    First time I've done this as a 'guaranteed profit' and made 12 pound..great stuff,
    I normally just back and lay a horse and 'hope it doesn't win' to unlock the free bet.
    My question is this..can I do the guarantee profit on this sky offer every time?
    I've missed a trick if this is the case

  12. Gaz_1966

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    I've just re read the risk free betting strategy which explains all!
    Thanks Matt and happy new year to you and all who use this forum.
    One of my goals this year is to make the most out of matched betting!
    Best site on the 'net by far.
    Gaz

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 2, 2017
      / Reply

      You're welcome Gaz, happy new year to you too!

  13. Cumbriangregg

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    Small Arb on palace to win on sky and smarkets now, nice little earner if youv got a free bet to use up

  14. chris

    January 1, 2017
    / Reply

    hi matt is there any way of getting your blog updates emailed through as and when you update the blog.
    this way I don't have to keep checking on the page every couple of hours and don't miss anything

    • Matt

      Matt

      January 2, 2017
      / Reply

      It's not something I'm looking to introduce at the present time Chris. Do you use Twitter at all? I post all available offers on there, which you may find useful...

      twitter.com/MatchedBets


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