Kick-off time (GMT): 08/01/2017 : 13:50
There’s a big day of racing at Naas today and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 1.50 at Naas, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.78 and here’s how…
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the favourite, Death Duty.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.16…
Place £20.00 on Death Duty @ 1.571 = Potential profit of £11.42
Lay £19.16 on Death Duty @ 1.66 = Potential liability of £12.64
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Death Duty wins||+ £11.42 – £12.64 = £1.22 loss|
|Death Duty places 2nd||- £20.00 + £18.78 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.78 profit|
|Death Duty finishes outside top 2||- £20.00 + £18.78 = £1.22 loss|
So, we will make a nice profit of £14.78 if Death Duty places 2nd and we stand to lose £1.22 on any other outcome. Risking £1.22 to make a profit of £14.78 gives us effective odds of 13.11, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Death Duty won the race at odds of 1.833. Due to their best odds guarantee, I made a profit of £4.03 on this Sky Bet offer. *