Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make low-risk profits? Sky Bet are back with another First Race Special on todays horse racing. If the favourite wins the 3.40 at Punchestown race course, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £7.40 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
For this particular offer, we need to select a horse that isn’t likely to start the race as the favourite. Wish Ye Didnt looks odds on to start the race as favourite with a current price (at the time of writing) of 1.80. Having looked at the other odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Elembridge King.
Place £25.00 on Elembridge King @ 17.00 = Potential profit of £400.00
Lay £19.36 on Elembridge King @ 22.00 = Potential liability of £406.61
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Elembridge King wins | +£400.00 – £406.61 = £6.61 loss |
| The favourite wins | -£25.00 + £18.39 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £13.39 profit |
| Neither wins | -£25.00 + £18.39 = £6.61 loss |
So as things stand we will make £13.39 profit if the favourite wins. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose £6.61 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the favourite at the betting exchange. Although Wish Ye Didnt looks like starting the race as favourite at the time of writing, we should really place this next bet as close to the race starting as possible, so we can be sure we are laying the race favourite. In order to calculate our lay stake, we need to divide £6.61 by 0.95 to account for the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £6.96.
Lay £6.96 on Wish Ye Didnt @ 1.86 = Potential liability of £5.99
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Elembridge King wins | -£6.61 + £6.61 = £0.00 |
| Wish Ye Didnt wins | +£13.39 – £5.99 = £7.40 profit |
| Neither wins | -£6.61 + £6.61 = £0.00 |
So if Wish Ye Didnt doesn’t win, we will break even and there’s no harm done. However, if Wish Ye Didnt justifies his favourite tag by winning the 3.40 at Punchestown, we will make a nice profit of £7.40!
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.