Why bother looking for horse racing tips today, when you can do a bit of matched betting and make risk-free profit? Sky Bet are back with another First Race Special on todays horse racing. If Tullius (4/7 favourite) wins the 2.00 at Doncaster race course, Sky Bet will refund all losing outright bets on that race as a free bet up to £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £5.06 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
For this particular offer, we need to select any horse other than Tullius. This ensures that if Tullius wins, we will automatically be eligible for the free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, 12/1 long-shot Penitent gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
Place £10.00 on Penitent @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £120.00
Lay £8.70 on Penitent @ 15.00 = Potential liability of £121.80
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Penitent wins | +£120.00 – £121.80 = £1.80 loss |
| Tullius wins | -£10.00 + £8.26 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.26 profit |
| Neither wins | -£10.00 + £8.26 = £1.74 loss |
So as things stand we will make £6.26 profit if Tullius wins. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £1.80 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Tullius at the betting exchange. The minimum lay stake at Betfair is £2.00.
Lay £2.00 on Tullius @ 1.60 = Potential liability of £1.20
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Penitent wins | -£1.80 + £1.90 (£2.00 minus 5% commission) = £0.10 profit |
| Tullius wins | +£6.26 – £1.20 = £5.06 profit |
| Neither wins | -£1.74 + £1.90 (£2.00 minus 5% commission) = £0.16 profit |
So if Tullius doesn’t win, we will make a tiny profit and there’s no harm done. However, if Tullius justifies his favourite tag and wins the 2.00 at Doncaster, we will make a nice profit of £5.06!
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.