Kick-off time (GMT): 21/08/2016 : 05:00
Conor McGregor is out for revenge against Nate Diaz tonight and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the Fight Result market for Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz and if McGregor wins by Knockout (KO) or Total Knockout (TKO), Betfair will double our odds on that market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £15.10 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £25.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on the Fight Result market for McGregor v Diaz. If McGregor beats Diaz by Knockout (KO) or Total Knockout (TKO), Betfair will double our odds on that market. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £25.00 on a winning selection at odds of 2.00 (evens), we would receive £50.00 in cash and £25.00 in free bets.
In order to be eligible for a free bet if McGregor wins by KO or TKO, we need to place our qualifying bet on him in the Fight Result market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.59…
Place £25.00 on Conor McGregor @ 1.80 = Potential profit of £20.00
Lay £24.59 on Conor McGregor @ 1.85 = Potential liability of £20.90
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Conor McGregor doesn't win||- £25.00 + £24.10 = £0.90 loss|
|Conor McGregor wins by KO or TKO||+ £20.00 – £20.90 + £16.00 (80% extracted from £20.00 free bet) = £15.10 profit|
|Conor McGregor wins by another method||+ £20.00 – £20.90 = £0.90 loss|
So, if Conor McGregor wins by Knockout (KO) or Total Knockout (TKO), we’ll make a nice profit of £15.10 on this Betfair offer! Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.90. Risking £0.90 to make £15.10 profit, gives us effective odds of 17.78, so given that the odds of McGregor winning by KO or TKO are only 2.50, this a profitable offer in the long run.
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of the match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.