TonyBet Offer – EU Referendum

June 22, 2016 / Other Sports / 25 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 23/06/2016 : 19:00

Guaranteed profit
£13.30

It’s the EU Referendum on Thursday and you don’t want to miss this TonyBet offer! Simply place a £20.00 bet on the UK to leave the EU, and if the UK remains in the EU, TonyBet will refund our stake as a bonus! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £13.30 and here’s how…

TonyBet Offer - Risk-Free Brexit Bets

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake by selecting the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £19.00 as our ‘Cashback’ amount, as this is the amount we can expect to extract from our £20.00 bonus if our qualifying bet loses…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:
+ Free bet

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £14.59…

tonybet

Place £20.00 on the UK to leave the EU @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £60.00

smarkets whiteLay £14.59 on the UK to leave the EU @ 4.20 = Potential liability of £46.70

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

UK leaves the EU + £60.00 – £46.70 = £13.30 profit
UK remains in the EU - £20.00 + £14.30 + £19.00 (extract 95% from our £20.00 bonus) = £13.30 profit

So, regardless of the result of the EU Referendum, we will make a guaranteed profit of £13.30 on this TonyBet offer!

If our qualifying bet loses, our bonus refund will be credited within 24 hours of the results being announced and will be valid for 5 days.

Bonuses just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.85 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £20.00 stake refund.

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25 Comments

  1. David

    June 22, 2016
    / Reply

    Hi Matt

    Newbie here - Thanks for all the advice and tips! Why can we extract 95% of the Free Bet rather than the usual ~80%? I was feeling confident earlier and did this one on my own (!) but I only included £16 rather than £19 so my guaranteed profit is lower. Perhaps I should have waited! Thanks

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 22, 2016
      / Reply

      It's a stake returned bonus David. We just need to roll it over once at low odds (1.85 or above). We can therefore extract a much higher percentage.

      • Guy

        June 22, 2016
        / Reply

        So do we use the free bat calculator?

        • Matt

          Matt

          June 23, 2016
          / Reply

          We use the 'Risk-Free Bet' setting on the calculator Guy, as shown above.

      • ben

        June 23, 2016
        / Reply

        I'm confused as to the 'bonus needs to be rolled over once'. Could you clarify this bit, possibly with an example?

  2. Vojtech Prochazka

    June 22, 2016
    / Reply

    Shouldnt we be expecting to extract 16 pounds of 20 pounds freebet? :)

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 23, 2016
      / Reply

      Unlike a standard free bet, the bonus is stake returned and just needs rolling over at odds of 1.85 or greater. We can therefore match it at low odds and extract a much higher percentage.

  3. RyanB

    RyanB

    June 22, 2016
    / Reply

    Bonus needs to be bet on 17/20 odds?

  4. Stuart

    June 22, 2016
    / Reply

    Doesnt "In favour of staying in EU"(Against) and "In favour of leaving EU"(FOR) means same? But have odds 1.36 vs 3.8

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 23, 2016
      / Reply

      You need to place your qualifying bet on the UK leaving the EU. You then lay the same selection at Smarkets.

  5. Homer

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    RyanB - that's 1.85.

  6. Homer

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    Ben - treat the rollover the same as a qualifying bet with minimum odds of 1.85.

    You should be looking at something as close to 1.85 as possible with a small difference in the lay odds as you want to lose as little money as possible on the rollover. Use the qualifying bet calculator to calculate.

    • Ben

      June 23, 2016
      / Reply

      Thanks for this. So basically you are doing another bet after the free bet?

      • Sunny

        Sunny

        June 23, 2016
        / Reply

        Nope Ben, that IS your free bet. Look at it this way - once Leave loses (which we all know it will) Tonybet will stick that 20 quid back in your account. But you can't just withdraw it straight away - they want you to bet it at odds of at least 1.85. Once you've done that, you can withdraw that 20 quid (plus the winnings from that bet), or if it's lost it'll end up in your exchange.
        So in a way you're treating that 20 quid they've returned to you as normal cash balance, so you want to find the lowest odds possible above 1.85 to minimise the loss on the required bet.

      • Matt

        Matt

        June 23, 2016
        / Reply

        That's correct Ben.

  7. Ben

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    I was going to join in on this, only just started with the Coral bonus, however the markets seem to have changed a lot (leave is around 8 on Smarket now) and TonyBet are offering me a bonus that needs to be wagered 12 times. I'm not sure what to do with that, is it worth it? So will leave it for this one.

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 23, 2016
      / Reply

      You can only participate in this offer if you have no existing bonuses on your account Ben. You'd therefore be better off doing their welcome offer.

  8. steve

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    Hi all,
    Matt i have spoke with an operative there because i have euro2016 active and you can do both

  9. steve

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    Scrap that, hes clueless

  10. kal

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    Hi matt can you help me bud i have over £400 stuck in the bookies account with impossible roll over requirements is there a low risk was of extracting the cash, help!!

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 23, 2016
      / Reply

      Which bookmaker is this Kal and what are the requirements?

  11. kal

    June 23, 2016
    / Reply

    Matt its 10bet roller requirement is impossible I cant afforded to get more money stuck in the bookies so little worried to place more bets using bookies and smarkets can you suggest anything else

    • Matt

      Matt

      June 24, 2016
      / Reply

      The only way to make your balance withdrawable, is to complete the rollover requirement. If that is simply not an option to you, you may have to cut your losses and try and bet your way out.

  12. sleepless

    sleepless

    June 24, 2016
    / Reply

    This has cost Tonybe most have bet Leave , yeah?.
    Or did they lay it off as well?.

  13. Paul

    June 24, 2016
    / Reply

    Thanks for this, made my £13.11 this morning. 13 squids, Cameron gone, silver linings...


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