Kick-off time (GMT): 09/09/2016 : 20:00
Hull FC face Wigan Warriors in the Super 8’s tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Josh Charnley scores a try in Hull FC v Wigan Warriors, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.78 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:45 today (Friday 9th September 2016), to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on something with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Wigan Warriors in the ‘1 X 2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.50…
Place £25.00 on Wigan Warriors @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £37.50
Lay £23.50 on Wigan Warriors @ 2.68 = Potential liability of £39.47
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Wigan Warriors win||+ £37.50 – £39.47 = £1.97 loss|
|Wigan Warriors don't win and Charnley scores a try||- £25.00 + £23.03 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.78 profit|
|Wigan Warriors don't win and Charnley doesn't score a try||- £25.00 + £23.03 = £1.97 loss|
So, if Wigan Warriors don’t win and Josh Charnley scores a try, we will make a nice profit of £21.78 on this 188BET offer. If Wigan Warriors do win or Josh Charnley doesn’t score a try, we’ll have made a loss of £1.97. Risking £1.97 to make a profit of £21.78, gives us effective odds of 12.06, so given that the odds of Josh Charnley scoring a try are only 1.727 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Wigan Warriors not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘JC25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to email@example.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 10th September 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.