188BET Offer – Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors

July 15, 2016 / Rugby / 2 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 15/07/2016 : 20:00

Potential profit
£20.69
My profit £-3.06

Leeds Rhinos host Wigan Warriors in the Super League tonight and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Dan Sarginson scores a try in Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.69 and here’s how…

188BET Offer - Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 and 19:45 today (Friday 15th July 2016), to be eligible.

We need to place our qualifying bet on something with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses. Having looked at the odds available and due to the fact that Dan Sarginson plays for Wigan Warriors, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a Leeds Rhinos win in the ‘1 X 2’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:
+ Free bet

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.39…

188bet

Place £25.00 on Leeds Rhinos @ 2.06 = Potential profit of £26.50

smarkets white

Lay £22.39 on Leeds Rhinos @ 2.32 = Potential liability of £29.56

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Leeds Rhinos win + £26.50 – £29.56 = £3.06 loss
Leeds Rhinos don't win and Sarginson scores a try - £25.00 + £21.94 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.69 profit
Leeds Rhinos don't win and Sarginson doesn't score a try - £25.00 + £21.94 = £3.06 loss

So, if Leeds Rhinos don’t win and Dan Sarginson scores a try, we’ll make a nice profit of £20.69 on this 188BET offer. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £3.06. Risking £3.06 to make a profit of £20.69, gives us effective odds of 7.76, so given that the odds of Dan Sarginson scoring a try are only 2.625 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Leeds Rhinos not to win.

Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.

To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘DS25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Saturday 16th July 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.

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2 Comments

  1. Sprinklepup

    July 15, 2016
    / Reply

    You'll never get 90+% the refund is a free bet SNR

    • Matt

      Matt

      July 15, 2016
      / Reply

      The free bet just needs rolling over at odds of 1.90 or greater mate.


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