A huge fixture in the Rugby World Cup 2015 sees another great offer from Ladbrokes. If Wales score first in the England v Wales match tonight, Ladbrokes will refund losing First Tryscorer and 5 Point Winning Margin bets, as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.87 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Jonny May to score the first try.
We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Jonny May @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £225.00
Lay £20.92 on Jonny May @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £230.13
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Jonny May scores 1st try and Wales score first | +£225.00 – £230.13 = £5.13 loss |
| Jonny May scores 1st try and England score first | +£225.00 – £230.13 = £5.13 loss |
| Jonny May doesn’t score 1st try and Wales score first | -£25.00 + £19.87 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.87 profit |
| Jonny May doesn’t score 1st try and England score first | -£25.00 + £19.87 = £5.13 loss |
So if Jonny May doesn’t score 1st and Wales score the first points of the match, we will make a nice profit of £14.87! Any other outcome and we will have made a loss of £5.13. I would usually avoid doing offers that have such a large risk but risking £5.13 to make a potential profit of £14.87 gives us effective odds of 3.90. The fact that Wales are only 1.90 to score first, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.