Serena Williams goes for a fifth Olympic Gold Medal in Rio this month and Unibet are getting in on the action! If we place a bet on the Women’s Singles Outright Winner market and Serena Williams goes on to win Gold, Unibet will refund losing stakes in cash, up to a maximum of £30.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £11.59 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 23:00 on Monday 1st August 2016 and 15:00 on Saturday 6th August 2016, to be eligible.
Qualifying bets must be placed on the Women’s Singles Outright Winner market only. Only bets with a stake up to £30.00 will be refunded. Any bet with a higher stake does not qualify for a refund.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Garbine Muguruza.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.75…
Place £30.00 on Garbine Muguruza @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £150.00
Lay £23.75 on Garbine Muguruza @ 7.60 = Potential liability of £156.73
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Garbine Muguruza wins | + £150.00 – £156.73 = £6.73 loss |
| Serena Williams win | – £30.00 + £23.27 + £30.00 (stake refund) = £23.27 profit |
| Another player wins | – £30.00 + £23.27 = £6.73 loss |
So, as things stand, if Serena Williams wins Gold in Rio, we will make a nice profit of £23.27. If she doesn’t win Gold, we’ll have made a loss of £6.73.
By placing an extra lay bet on Serena Williams in the Outright Winner market, we can actually make this offer risk-free. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £6.73 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us £6.87…
Lay £6.87 on Serena Williams @ 2.70 = Potential liability of £11.68
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Garbine Muguruza wins | – £6.73 + £6.73 = £0.00 |
| Serena Williams win | £23.27 – £11.68 = £11.59 profit |
| Another player wins | – £6.73 – £6.73 = £0.00 |
So, we will make a nice profit of £11.59 if Serena Williams wins the Gold Medal in Rio, and we will break even on any other outcome.
If eligible, our stake will be refunded within 48 hours of the event completing. The tournament is scheduled to finish on Saturday 13th August 2016. Refunded stakes will not be subject to any restrictions or turnaround criteria.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.