ACCA (again sorry!)

  • Hi Guys,
    First post in a while!

    Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!

    Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
    All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
    1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
    2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
    3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
    4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
    All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50

    I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?

    Any tips would be appreciated!
    Thanks

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Ultimately the value is in getting the free bet in my opinion. So you are looking for short odds to maximise the chance that at least 4 win. It may seem counter intuitive given that your example you lose most if one leg loses, but this is the result that you want to maximise.

    1.3 odds is okay if you get close matches, but I find 1.2 and shorter gives better return. If the bookie has a min odds of for example 5.0 on the total odds its better have 4 short ones and one longer to make up the odds.

    If you are allowed one refund per day, there is no harm having two acca’s on per day as probably only one will return you a refund. Or on Mon set up acca’s ending Mon, Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat. As the week passes and acca’s/free bets are eliminated then you have another chance to shoot for the free bet on Fri, Sat maybe for example if your original Fri and Sat accas are already dead. That way instead of getting 7 shots at a refund you have up to 10 shots or more, and it works pretty good for when there is not much football on on a Monday or some day as you can combine it with odds across other days where there might be more favourable options.

    Tonight I am looking at sporting bet and there is nothing really there at the moment for Europa League. So I am going to go back and check at half time as in play counts and if there are a few favs up by a goal or two then it gives some really short odds which are ideal.

    I like checking the most popular bets (most bookies have a little list), 1. you look like a mug, 2. usually short favs turn up on the list ppl like backing favs, 3. usually anything value turns up on the list as ppl will be more likely to back it, 4. popular markets will show up and they will have the most liquidity on the exchange.

    Just a comment on value, according to your figures the Expected Value of your lay up front method is about £5.39 on that example. Lay sequentially for the same acca runs at £5.55 according to my calculator based on 2% commission. For 0% commission (no commission if not laying) the long term Expected Value is £6.15. So no lay should make 10% more profit per month just based on saving commission alone (but in reality its more because if its laying at 1.32 the true value might be closer to 1.31). Also whether you’re laying up front, not laying, laying sequentially or whatever still get your hands on some kind of calculator that calculates the EV for you to make sure you are getting positive expected value as its not always intuitive. Some picks wont give you value at all.

    I find it less stressful than the horses. I set up my acca’s in the evenings when the kids are in bed or in the mornings if work is quiet – there’s more freedom as in your not looking at odds all day long or trying to sneak on smarkets for a very small window ten minutes before a race to get the best matches. I try and get 5 or 6 accas on each day across 3 different bookies. That’s easy on Wed, Sat and Sun but other days it’s not always possible due to lack of favourable odds and then I just take the day off! It doesn’t take long to pick out 6 accas.

    If you are getting £150 (eg 6 x £25) on per day at 20% return on investment that is £900 per month profit (£30 by 30 days). I’ve made 900+ the past 4 months mostly based on acca’s and it doesn’t feel like I should be making that much. It is only the weekends I am getting £150 on (during the week I really don’t get £150 on with some days just not getting anything on at all), so I think I am benefiting from not losing money at the exchange too. I also think I am getting lucky, but luck doesn’t last 4 months! Contributing to my profits too is some boosts and some early prices on horses on bet365 but thats not really much as I am restricted to about £5 punts. So I am surprised I’m keeping my profits in the 4 – figure region based mostly off acca’s and the 3 sites (betvictor, betmclean and sportingbet) that I haven’t been gubbed off yet.

    I don’t use any odds matching software which would prolly speed things up I guess but its always the same leagues that have decent liquidity and its always the same teams that are strong favs – barca, real, bayern, celtic, psg, monaco, chelsea, atletico, arsenal, liverpool, man city, juve, napoli, roma, olympiacos etc. There is actually lots to pick from and you can combine them in different ways to make multiple accas. They’ll all usually show up in the popular bets section. It’s not hard to find acca’s once you get into it.

    Any excuse to ramble on about accas!

    Good luck.

    +0
    Big Mick 0

    Logged in to reply and saw FoG’s reply – would have showed mine up! Thanks FoG! I’ve been using the lay all at start method lately and works for me. So much money to be made here for such little work in my opinion, so best of luck! Also reiterating that an EV calculator is majorly helpful, many a time I’ve entered some odds on what looks like a good acca which actually has no or very little value. If you’re lucky enough to have plenty of accounts then it’s can be worth entering an acca into your basket on odds checker and obviously choose the bookie with best odds that offers the insurance!

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    RyanB 11

    Amazing help as always FOG!

    I’ve got quite a few bookies that i’m not gubbed from with certain accounts. I see that WH & Paddy both do £50 ACCA, but WH seems to be better as there is no min odds?? which is surely a huge advantage??

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Not familiar with Will hill or paddy acca offers as I’m gubbed from them before I started accas.

    Yes no min odds is a huge advantage.

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    Burger Me 1

    When opting to lay everything at the start, is there a more sophisticated way of calculating your lay stakes than what is done in RyanB’s example (which is to simply to have each of your lay stakes equal your back stake)? How is this done? Can anyone recommend a calculator?

    Also, thought I should point out that in RyanB’s example, the “one lose” outcome already takes account of the free bet – without it you’d be £32.50 down in that instance.

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    RyanB 11

    @Burger me this was all copied from a different site and it wasn’t me who made this example, i’m almost certain that it is correct and the loss is £12.50.

    This is one of the methods, there is a guaranteed method of laying one after another which is probably what you mean.

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    bobster 1

    FoG – a couple of questions:

    1/ How do you get so many different accas on, considering that the main teams (which you said are your main targets), only play 1 or 2 times a week?

    2/ In one respect, yes you are saving quite a bit of time by not laying, but then I imagine you end up with so many free bets to do, which always takes time, especially if you’re trying to be muggy and not just put them on random close match horses. How do you approach these?

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    Burger Me 1

    @RyanB
    Yep, I can see where you copied it from. The loss is indeed £12.50, but that’s only after you’ve got 80% extraction from the £25 free bet. Just thought I’d point that out because FOG said the value is in getting the free bet – if you’re using this laying method with these stakes then you don’t want to get the free bet, and it’s just there to recoup some of your losses.

    The reason I’m asking about a calculator is that – presumably! – changing the lay stakes will alter the EV (expected value), especially since you won’t get the same odds for each of your selections, unlike the example. We want whatever lay stakes maximise the EV.

    In fact, I might have a go at rolling my own calculator. 😀

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Bobster.

    I’m no expert just sharing how I am getting by. Been mainly doing accas about 4 months so it’s a decent amount of experience but by no means a veteran!

    1/ Weekends are easy, Saturday and Sunday. Wednesday is usually quite easy too. Must admit Tuesday Wednesday Thursday were all full of options during group phase of champs league and Europa league. Early rounds of cup comps too. It is getting harder to find options for mon tue thu and fri. But as well as the teams mentioned above I forgot the likes of benfica, sporting Lisbon, Porto, Ajax, psv even tns… there are lots of options. So there are uncountable options and combinations with 20 or so targets playing twice per week. Focus on getting 4 short odds and for the fifth leg you can be a little bit looser even something close to evens so long as the odds are really tight. It’s even easier for offers where the acca doesn’t have to settle same day. You can have four short odd legs on Sunday and pick a diff leg mon to fri for the final leg and fill up the week that way.

    2/ free bets I do on horses. I’m not looking for big big odds but usually 6/1 to 9/1. It doesn’t look as obvious. i enjoy spending them, usually have just a couple each day.

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    bobster 1

    Thanks for the advice FoG – very insightful. Definitely something I’ve been looking to move to (after doing sequential lock in accas for the last few months and growing tired of the hassle)

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    betman 40

    What sites do u use fog?
    Hills was good but I lost it, Ladbrokes is very good with the ability to sneak in guaranteed in play wins.
    Paddy is 1.2 min odds and despite doing reasonable other odds their 1.2-1.5 favourites tend to be behind the rest

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    MbPunter 17

    Betman, have you had a refund that’s included inplays?

    They always come up on the acca coupon but the terms say inplays don’t count? So i’ve always avoided them.

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    betman 40

    Erm, I’ve never not had a refund because of it…. but that doesn’t mean I’ve hit one. I just assumed they would being on the coupon, I’ve got one running at the moment so will keep an eye on that. If not I may go back through history to see if I can see

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    FoG_BLoG 47

    Betman. All I have is sportingbet, betmclean and betvictor. Not because they are the best offers but just because I’m gubbed most other places.

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    MbPunter 17

    Ok cheers. Definitely a massive bonus if they’re included.

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