ACCA (again sorry!)
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Hi Guys,
First post in a while!Thought it was time I started on the Acca’s. I feel the best method for me personally is the Lay all at the start method, I presume the no lay method is probably more beneficial, however guess i’m just a wimp!
Result Bookmaker Exchange Your Profit
All win (24%) £68 -£40 £28
1 lose (40%) -£5 -£7.50 -£12.50
2 lose (26%) -£25 £25 £0
3 lose (9%) -£25 £57.50 £32.50
4 lose (1%) -£25 £90 £65
All lose (0.1%) -£25 £122.50 £97.50I found the above online, this is based off a £25 stake and back and lay odds of 1.3/1.32. I assume this is correct?
Any tips would be appreciated!
Thanks+0February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm
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I had a look and won all the inplay ones
I think they do them manually though as they missed a couple in the past and I’ve also had them given or not given with voided legs
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Fog, what’s your approach to laying/not laying?
Thanks!
+0Thanks. Yeah i’ve had to chase them up a few times in the past.
+0I’d be careful with the in play stuff – from what I remember on most of the terms it says pre match bets only (e.g. just checked Lads – no in play)
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Roger, I don’t lay but that is risky. I figure I am getting enough acca’s on each month for things to balance out – but of course its possible I don’t win a single acca for a month and I am down 1000’s. I kind of have it in my mind if I hit a certain low then I can build my bank back up by laying for guaranteed, but that hasn’t happened to me yet. Other problem with not laying is that you sometimes give away value in order to pick a diverse selection of acca’s so that you are not all in on Barcelona winning for example.
This is the sheet I use to figure out value. I list all the games and back and lay odds on the left. Then I can just switch them in and out by typing the match key into the acca box. I assume 75% extraction and 2% commission. Will only accept accas worth 10% +. In the end I pay no commission and extract 80-90% on free bets so I’m making more than I estimate. But I like to be conservative in my calculations.
If anyone wants to use this sheet make a copy of it to your own drive because ppl can edit this one and eventually it will become unusable. This is just a fresh copy of the one I use – so if it gets mucked up I don’t mind I have my own copy.
I like having the calculator on google rather than excel because you can access it from your phone and figure out an acca or two while you are sitting around waiting for the kids to come out of school or whatever.
Sorry Ryan, it doesn’t do the upfront lay calculations but as far as I know for that you can just use the basic lay calculator that Matt has on this site repeated for each leg.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p3DAXD7Nfb37rygPj91-yxwqIVRdhIZhEhVWZzT7y9I/edit?usp=sharing
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bobster – sportingbet are definitely in play. Its clear in their t and c. I got a refund from one on Weds too just to be sure.
Also I think some bookies apply the refund manually. I know BetMcLean do and before when I had added invalid selections (they don’t accept all leagues) I didn’t get the refund. I went on chat and nothing was said, they just added the free bet to my account. Sounds from betman that Ladbrokes could be similar – so you would never know, still possible to get the bet if you ask.
+0Fog_Blog – a good post and thank you for sharing the spreadsheet.
The maths of this tell me that I should not be laying (always provided you can get the right odds) the trouble is my more cautious self cannot quite allow me to take this approach. I have also found it difficult to take the lay all at the start approach which will also work long term.
Consequently I always end up doing the sequential lay method to guarantee a modest profit but this can get quite stressful when laying especially when there is very little time between legs. It does also mean you have be very careful to ensure you are available at the right time between matches.
I do now keep meticulous records to ensure that I don’t get it wrong – it can cost a lot if you get the lay amount wrong!
Out of interest has any bookie gubbed you (Fog_Blog) as yet because you are doing so many?
Finally I do wonder how some of the ‘better’ bookies are actually making a profit (e.g. WH) with the approach that they are taking, is it because most people that bet end up taking mug punts and losing?
+0Thanks fog.
Out of interest do u always use the sheet?
I used to use one for sequential laying, so had a feel of the right odds so now I’ve started toying with punts I just check the lay price seems reasonable then go with it. Your sheets probably taught me I have a bit more leeway, I’ve been pushing tighter odds…. probably as used to fitting a 6/6.4 type leg into my sequential.Tennis- I think mugs find numerous ways to hand the bookie back the advantage. Taking poor odds, speculative selections chasing big money, poor use of cash out, much lower return on freebet.
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What do you guys think of Betfair’s Acca edge?.
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tennis punter – i find my acconts are lasting a bit longer doing acca offers compared to doing the horse offers.
betman – generally I double check everything in the calculator to check that I am getting value. Yes I have a feel for which acca’s make a good return but still check esp betmclean because often the odds are not great there.
sleepless – just checked a treble there for man city, chelsea and burnley with acca edge and they take a HUGE cut in the price “When you choose to Edge your Acca you will get odds of 1.4 instead of 2.45. However, you get your stake back in cash if one leg lets you down!” When I put in my calc with the new odds it is giving a negative value losing £4.50 for every £25 you put on…
Bookies LOVE acca’s. They love punters getting into them and only a very specific subset of acca’s are value under the acca insurance, most are still bad value. They can easily afford to offer the insurance and still easily make a profit. Colossus bets had a bit describing about how much a cut bookies take on acca’s and it was interesting. Colossus take a cut of 30% on their pools competitions and they reckon that that is less than the bookies usually take as a cut on their acca’s through the over round. And I believe them. In general the bookies edge accumulates like compound interest on each leg of the acca – so by the fifth leg the small overround has grown exponentially. They LOVE acca’s.
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Just to give it another fair chance sleepless I put in one of my acca’s im using on normal insurance offer for tonight. £25 is worth £5.70 guaranteed under normal insurance. With Acca Edge my overall odds change – “When you choose to Edge your Acca you will get odds of 2.96 instead of 5.89”. This would mean I would be losing £2.56 guaranteed by laying to the new reduced value of the acca, even considering its a cash refund so 100% extraction. I think it is fair to say that acca edge is a joke. They are offering 2.96 odds on my acca but one of the legs on the acca is 3.3 by itself!
+0For some reason my phones opening it as a pdf so have to download laptop later.
Is cell O7 your expected return then?
Only took a quick look at your odds earlier but will try plugging some numbers through later to see what I could be pushing myself to as worthwhile+0Just wanted to say a massive thank you to Foggy for the terrific information he has provided in this thread. This free site has to be the best there is when it comes to making money from the bookies.
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Hi Fog,
I have been doing some maths on excel and put together a 5 fold £50 ACCA for WH this weekend as a tester, if you could double check over my figures I would appreciate it! (there are no min odds)Selections
Celtic 1.1 1.11 (liability £5.55)
Barca 1.1 1.11 (liability £5.55)
PSG 1.22 1.23 (liability £11.60)
Man City 1.4 1.41 (liability £20.65)
Man Utd 1.3 1.32 (liability £16)Based on the figures total back odds is 2.69 and therefore with a £50 stake the profit would be £84.33.
I am testing out the lay from the start method and therefore i have worked out the following:
1) All teams win £84.33 – £59.34 = £24.98 profit
2) One Team loses -£10 at WH (assume £40 from the £50 free bet) then I get kind of stuck. If the team with the highest liability is the one that lets me down (in this case Man City) my total liabilities would be £-38.70 but then I would win £49.35 from the laystake) and have an overall outcome of 65p profit? I assume this is wrong somewhere…as if the team is the lowest liability lets me down the total liabilities would be £-53.80 and then there would be an overall loss of £-10-£53.80 + £49.45 = £14.35.
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I am aware all other permutations of more losing teams has increased profits.Appreciate any help!!
+0How are you making it £49.35 and not £49?
But otherwise yeah what youve got is right. If all your low liabilites win and Man City lose. You are losing less to the exchange than the other way round. Your Celtic and Man City liabilites are around £15 difference. Hence the gap in your losses.
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