acca question
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I read a discussion on acca lay methods. I have a few concerns though. Looking at the typical offers of 5 leg accas with a refund if one leg loses brings up a few problems.
Method 1: sequential laying.
This applies to matches that are consecutive. Each is layed one after the other. Laying stops if a leg loses. But, it’s really difficult to not lose quite a lot of money if all 5 win. In one example, the difference between the acca winnings and the accumulated exchange liability was -£100! Which is too high for a QL.
Here’s a simple example:
stake £20, back odds 28
[blockquote]
leg odds lay stake liability accumulated loss
1, 2, 20.41, 20.41, £20.41
2, 2, 41.23, 41.23, £61.64
3, 2, 83.31, 83.31, £144.95
4, 2, 168.31, 168.31, £313.26
5, 2, 340.06, 340.06, £653.33
[/blockquote]Profit = 540 – 653.33 = -£113.33
It makes no sense to risk losing £113 to win a £20 free bet!
Finding tight enough odds to make it worthwhile is very tough. Throw in the possibility of odds increasing between lays and you could end up in some real trouble.
Method 2: Laying all except the last leg.
This seemed to be a popular one, recommended by a lot of experienced people. But, it doesn’t seem to work because the 4th leg accumulated loss, at the exchange, will be very large. Let’s consider the last example.
If we win all except the last leg, which we don’t lay:
profit = 20 – 313.26 = -293.26 at bestSo, what am I missing?