I've won the BetVictor Golden Goal!
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I’ve won my share of the free to play £25,000 jackpot Golden Goal. Predicted S.Mane to score in the 27th minute. Unfortunately, another 230 people have predicted the same and so we only get £108 each. Can’t moan though, as it’s a free to play game every week.
+0November 7, 2016 at 12:37 am
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Wow that must be a lot of people entering it then given you’re only looking at probably 3rd most likely scorer and I’d expect a lot to be predicted under 25 mins
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Congratulations @gforce147 😀
I’m also surprised you’re having to share with that many others but a win’s a win! Nice one!
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All 3 of my picks scored!!!… but chose the 13th minute for the lot ?… well done mate
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Well done gforce!
I’ve put a lot of effort into this in the last few weeks and nothing! Glad one of us won though.
About the number of entries ……….
There were 17% on Mane according to their twitter. So in 27th minute 231 had Mane and if that is 17% then it would mean about 1359 predictions total for 27th min. The 27th minute will have had a lot more guesses than most of every other minute, but imagine every minute had the same it would make 1359*90 total entries = 122,229. That’s the absolute tops, I would say it would be closer to 60,000 entries because the second half minutes will have only a tiny fraction of guesses compared with the 27th. 60,000 is ridiculously small in my opinion, especially considering every customer has up to 3 predictions. Super 6 on sky gets about 1 million entries per week. Collosus Bets Free play pool had 300,000 units this weekend.About picking the minute ……….
Anyway from my research and the info that betvictor have tweeted I think stay away from 17th, 23rd and 27th minutes – they seem to be popular guesses. Something like 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 people seem to stay away from guessing – perhaps they don’t think they are “accurate” enough. For example the graph that they showed us after the Euro 2016 final it peaked at the 17th minute and then again at the 23rd. There was a huge dip in between where it looked like less than half the guesses for the in between 20th minute. There is nothing really that makes the 17th or 23rd significantly more likely than the 20th – but the share will be about double because you will be sharing with half as many correct guesses.About picking the scorer …………
Also the favourites seem to be over represented. So there was only 7% on Lallana yesterday so the share for him would have been about 3 times bigger than the share they paid for Mane. Looking at the odds Mane (19/5) was definitely not 3 times more likely to score than Lallana (11/2). Lallana would have given more long term value – would have been wrong though (this time) ;).If you want to win then yes go for guesses like Aguero/Costa etc in the 17th, 31st minute. And yea obviously more likely to win, but your share will only be £100 or so. I’m going for the jackpot – picking the 3rd or 4th favourites in minutes like 10, 20 , 30, 45, even 90. I’m greedy. I don’t want to share!
Sorry for the long post, this is my favourite topic these days.
+0Interesting insight FoG – thanks.
I am also looking for a decent database/resource for football goalscorer/event information, if anyone knows one? Basically I’m looking to build a spreadsheet of stats to support my assessment of the value of bookies’ offers, like Paddy’s 60min refund, but also red card refunds, etc.
+0congrats mate. well done. I’ve not bothered to do this comp in the past. Will probably start now
+0Nice win, i thought i had it last time, had two goes and got the correct minute and scorer but wrong way around lol
Great insight FOG by the way 😉
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Thanks everyone. Had my £108.70 through this afternoon and a congratulations email. Gutted I had to share the big one. I hope more people will be entering now as it’s free money for a lucky punt!
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Luckily I managed to win this today. I’ve just been picking outsiders but decided to change tack and pick a fav and 2 outsiders instead. 130 winners get £192 each. Tbh I was expecting less money given it was Costa who scored. The 9 mins Injury time also helped me.
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Yes with the stoppage, I was thinking should have picked 45 mins!
I wouldn’t have had Costa anyway as I am aiming for a big jackpot.
Congrats!
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Cheers lads yeah so effectively i had 10 minutes or so for the price of one. As i say ive been doing outsiders same as FOG but decided id use one on the fav. I also thought 45th was good as you get more than one minute. I was expecting about £25 as i was sure more would have used similar logic. I guess they prob expected Chelsea would score before then.
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Well done Pickle. Shame the return isn’t better considering the odds.
45th minute is the most popular selection, I think Jurgen Klopp even says on the Betvictor TV advert for this offer that the 45th minute is when the most goals are scored (or 90th, might be mixed up). But yeah, easy to imagine that given 45th and 90th minutes include additional injury time minutes.
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Cheers Chris
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