£100.00+
Potential Profit
£-2.19
Actual Profit

2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer (2UP) – Bet365


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 22/05/2020 19:30

Bundesliga football continues this weekend and so too does the Bet365 ‘2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer’! Simply place a pre-match bet on any Bundlesliga Full Time Result market and if our team goes 2 goals ahead, Bet365 will pay out our bet in full, regardless of the final result! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be place on the Full Time Result market.
  • Applies to all Bundesliga I matches.
  • If our selected team goes 2 goals ahead at any stage, Bet365 will pay out our bet in full regardless of the final result.

Qualifying Bets:

Early payout offers have been incredibly popular for a while now. In addition to Bet365’s offer, Paddy Power run a pretty much identical version, which they call ‘2 UP, YOU WIN‘.

I won’t go into the strategy too much here, but you can find a complete walk-through of how they should be done in my Early Payout Offers (2UP) guide.

Here’s a list of the Bundesliga matches scheduled for this weekend…

FixtureKick-offDate
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin19:30Friday 22nd May 2020
Mönchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen14:30Saturday 23rd May 2020
SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim14:30Saturday 23rd May 2020
SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen14:30Saturday 23rd May 2020
VfL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund14:30Saturday 23rd May 2020
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt17:30Saturday 23rd May 2020
FC Schalke 04 v FC Augsburg12:30Sunday 24th May 2020
Mainz 05 v RB Leipzig14:30Sunday 24th May 2020
FC Köln v Fortuna Düsseldorf17:00Sunday 24th May 2020

There’s no limit on how many matches you can place qualifying bets on and it’s entirely up to you which teams you go for. Having looked at the odds available, we could place a qualifying bet on Werder Bremen to beat SC Freiburg.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my Early Payout Calculator

2-Way Dutch
Advanced

Back bet (Bookie)1st Bookie

2nd Bookie

Recommended stake
-

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake
-
Liability
-
The bookmaker has paid out early
Back stakeStake
-
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If team wins
If team draws
If team loses
Bookie 1
Bookie 2
Bookie 3
Total
If selection wins
If selection loses

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £48.78

Bet365 logo

Place £50.00 on Werder Bremen @ 3.20 = Potential profit of £110.00

Betfair logo

Lay £48.78 on Werder Bremen @ 3.30 = Potential liability of £112.19

No Early Payout:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss if there’s no early payout…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Werder Bremen win+£110.00-£112.19£2.19 loss
Werder Bremen don't win-£50.00+£47.80£2.20 loss

So, worst case scenario, we’ll lose a maximum of £2.20 in qualifying for this offer.

Early Payout!

If Werder Bremen go two goals up, we need to select the early payout toggle (in the grey section) to tell the calculator that ‘The bookmaker has paid out early‘…

2-Way Dutch
Advanced

Back bet (Bookie)1st Bookie

2nd Bookie

Recommended stake
-

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake
-
Liability
-
The bookmaker has paid out early
Back stakeStake
-
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If team wins
If team draws
If team loses
Bookie 1
Bookie 2
Bookie 3
Total
If selection wins
If selection loses

As you can see, our potential profit/loss is as follows, now that Bet365 have paid out early…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Werder Bremen win+£110.00-£112.19£2.19 loss
Werder Bremen don't win+£110.00+£47.80+£157.80 profit

So, if we let things runs and Werder Bremen go on to win, we’ll still lose £2.19, but if Werder Bremen draw or lose, we’ll make a profit of £157.80!

Lock in Profit:

If we decide to lock in a profit, we’ll need to enter the back odds for Werder Bremen to win at Betfair. I’ll use back odds of 1.30 to illustrate how locking in a profit should work…

2-Way Dutch
Advanced

Back bet (Bookie)1st Bookie

2nd Bookie

Recommended stake
-

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%
Lay stake
-
Liability
-
The bookmaker has paid out early
Back stakeStake
-
Bookie
Exchange
Total
If team wins
If team draws
If team loses
Bookie 1
Bookie 2
Bookie 3
Total
If selection wins
If selection loses

As you can see, the calculator tells us that we need to stake £123.83 on Werder Bremen to win at Betfair.

Betfair logo

Place £123.83 on Werder Bremen @ 1.30 = Potential profit of £37.15

Now let’s have a look at our overall potential profit for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeProfit/Loss
Werder Bremen win+£110.00-£75.04+£34.96 profit
Werder Bremen don't win+£110.00-£75.05+£34.95 profit

So, regardless of the outcome, we would make a guaranteed profit of £34.95 on this match!

We’ll make a small loss the majority of the time, but when the early payout is triggered, the returns can be very nice indeed. Feel free to place qualifying bets on more than one match, just try and keep your qualifying losses to a minimum.

* Werder Bremen beat SC Freiburg 1-0, resulting in a loss of £2.19 on this Bet365 offer. *

** Congratulations to anyone who backed Fortuna Düsseldorf (16/5) against FC Köln. FC Köln staged a very late comeback to draw 2-2. A £50.00 stake would have netted you around £200.00 profit! **

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