Coral Offer – English Open 2016

October 12, 2016 / Golf / 5 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 10/10/2016 : 10:00

Potential profit
£100.00+
My profit £-2.21

The Coral English Open 2016 snooker is well underway and you don’t want to miss this Coral offer! Coral will give us our money back as a free bet up to £25.00, if our player loses in a match where the final frame features a break of 100 or greater. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

coral-offer-coral-english-open-2016

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

To qualify, we must place a £5.00+ Single bet at odds of 1.20 (1/5) or greater on any Coral English Open 2016 match taking place between Monday 10th October 2016 and Sunday 16th October 2016.

If our selection loses the match and there is a century break (100 or more points in one visit) in the final frame, Coral will refund our bet as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00.

Having looked at the odds available for Fraser Patrick v James Wattana, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Fraser Patrick.

We’ll need to place our lay bets on the Betfair Exchange.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £26.18…

coral logo

Place £25.00 on Fraser Patrick @ 2.00 = Potential profit of £25.00

betfair

Lay £26.18 on Fraser Patrick @ 1.96 = Potential liability of £25.13

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Fraser Patrick wins + £25.00 – £25.13 = £0.13 loss
Fraser Patrick doesn't win and century break in final frame - £25.00 + £24.87 + £20.00 (extract 80% from stake refund) = £19.87 profit
Fraser Patrick doesn't win and no century break in final frame - £25.00 + £24.87 = £0.13 loss

So, if Fraser Patrick doesn’t win and there’s a century break in the final frame, we will make a nice profit of £19.87. If, however, Fraser Patrick does win or there is no century break in the final frame, we’ll have made a small loss of £0.13. Risking £0.13 to make a profit of £19.87, gives us effective odds of 153.85, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on all Coral English Open 2016 matches and it’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table over the next few days with my selections…

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Profit/Loss
Fraser Patrick v James Wattana Fraser Patrick 2.00 1.96 - £0.13
Ian Burns v Mark Williams Ian Burns 4.00 3.95 - £0.64
Elliot Slessor v Jak Jones Elliot Slessor 2.00 1.95 + £0.00
Rod Lawler v Stuart Carrington Stuart Carrington 1.667 1.67 - £0.56
Ben Woollaston v Zhang Anda Ben Woollaston 1.909 1.89 - £0.36
Tom Ford v Joe Swail Joe Swail 3.50 3.35 + £0.19
Ali Carter v Ben Woollaston Ben Woollaston 2.875 2.82 - £0.35
Liang Wenbo v Stuart Bingham Liang Wenbo 2.50 2.46 - £0.36

If we don’t hit any winners, we’ll make a small loss, but with £100.00+ in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!

If any of our selections lose and there is a century break in the final frame, our free bets will be credited by 12:00 the following day and must be used on any snooker market. Free bets will be valid for 48 hours and stakes are not included in any returns.

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5 Comments

  1. Simon

    October 12, 2016
    / Reply

    Using stats from the last year's professional snooker games, there are odds of approximately 24 for any frame to have a century scored. You might be able to improve those odds by betting on matches where a player has previously scored a century. Multiply this number by the inverse odds of your qualifying bet (because it has to lose) to get the true odds, which on anything with odds close to 2 will give true odds of close to 50. In order to break even you'll therefore need your qualifying losses to be less than 40p (the profit extracted from the refund divided by 50) on average for each match, so it's incredibly unlikely to make you over £100, it's more likely to either make you a loss or a few pence profit in the long run.

    • Matt

      Matt

      October 12, 2016
      / Reply

      Thanks for the stats Simon. I agree, we're unlikely to hit many of these, which is why it's important that we go for selections with really tight back and lay odds.

      • Simon

        October 12, 2016
        / Reply

        Pick matches where there's an arb or an incredibly low QL on the underdog and the favourite has a history of scoring centuries if you want to improve the potential profitability on this offer. Personally I'm giving this one a miss because the gubbing risk from placing lots of bets on close matches/arbs on events where an offer is running doesn't outweigh the potential profit of a few pence/quid over 50 or so bets. There are much better offers on Coral and I'd rather keep my account active to use them.

  2. aykoglek

    October 12, 2016
    / Reply

    Where is the relevant bet on betfair located?

    • Matt

      Matt

      October 13, 2016
      / Reply

      Betfair Exchange > Snooker > English Open 2016


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