BOG

Im stealing this post from navillus off another thread. I think it deserves a thread of its own.

I think BOG is one of the best offers that the bookie’s offer.

Back in November Paddy Power had money back 2nd promo on a meeting every day. It was before my matched betting career but I had a strategy that I would back all horses 3/1 and lower (its actually very similar to matched betting as you pay a Qualifying Loss but take a long term view of this loss – just straight betting 3/1 shots you’re losing up to 10% of your stake on average). The bet won or came second for a refund often enough to make a good profit.

But the interesting thing (yes, I’m getting to the point, bear with me) was that because I wasn’t matching them I could get them on at any time and it suited me to do them all the night before. At the end of the month I was over €2000 in profit in Paddy Power. Half of this came from my “unmatched” betting strategy. But according to my paddy statement I also made €1000 due to Best Odds Guaranteed.

So the question is how are ppl tapping into BOG offers?

I have started scanning paddy power again the night before for arbs. And its a struggle because I often find them, but they are often unlikely to win 20/1 shots or there is not any decent amount of money available on the exchange to make it worth while.

For example last night I got Quick March at 8.0/7.6, Fashionable Spirit at 6.0/5.9 and Joyce Compton at 7.0/6.4 but in all cases there was only enough liquidity to get €5 or €20 on. And none are nailed on favourites that are really likely to win even if their odds do drift, so I’m unlikely to make anything.

Quoting navillus.
“As I say Im retired and it is a hobby. Some one said earlier , its the early bird that catches the worm. Im up at 6.a.m. cup of coffee, computer on , make a note of Racing Post favorites. Which of the above bookies has the best price off Oddsmatcher from my above bookies the major players, I then back it for a £100 win, lay it off on Betfair as they have the most liquidity. It is rare that one of the horses doesn`t win. If they all lose okay I will make a small loss on the day which is far outweighed when as yesterday for example it went very much in my favour.
I backed Glitter girl at 9/4 (3.25) for a £100 win and layed it at 3.90 for a potential loss of £19.82, so I am always in a negative state.
Glitter Girl won as you know but was returned at 9/2 F (5.5) giving me a massive profit on just that one race. The secret is the BOG prices , sometimes it is much less than this profit wise but do not expect to earn a living from betting because you won`t treat it like a hobby and enjoy the proceeds when things go right.
I withdraw money for small luxuries but I always have a betting bank entirely separate from my household money and look on it in the same way as if I had bought shares in a company, the company shares go up and down but the eventual idea is to make an overall profit.
Rotate your bets around the BOG bookmakers if possible nobody likes a winner all the time.”

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FoG_BLoG
58

September 9, 2016 at 9:58 am

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MbPunter 24 September 9, 2016 at 10:19 am

3.25/3.9 though? Hard to imagine those kind of qualifying losses can be profitable long term.

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Pickle 60 September 9, 2016 at 10:20 am

Interesting read but i dont think a £20 qualifying loss on the hope something drifts and wins is for me. No doubt nice when it happens but how many £20s are you burning before it does happen?

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granitechin 0 September 9, 2016 at 10:36 am

I thought favorites odds usually came in on the day of the race rather than drifted?

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FoG_BLoG 58 September 9, 2016 at 11:22 am

I suppose the perception is that the favourite’s odds come in on the day of the race but if that was in anyway predictable it would make trading favourites very easy on the exchanges.

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FoG_BLoG 58 September 9, 2016 at 12:21 pm

Because he has 100 on it, there doesn’t need to be a big drift to make a profit. A drift from 9/4 to 5/2 would be enough to make profit.

Actually 3 of the 7 favourites for Doncaster today their price has drifted.

Tis Marvellous was 3.5 at 9 and out to 3.75
Wall of Fire was 4.0 at 9am and out to 4.33
Khairaat was 2.38 at 9am and out to 2.5

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Lucida 0 September 9, 2016 at 12:23 pm

I’ve thought about using BOG as trading insurance. I’m pretty sure I could make it pay but my biggest concern is putting in the time to research only to be gubbed after my first few bets.

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FoG_BLoG 58 September 9, 2016 at 1:06 pm

I have collected some data on all the races since this morning. I think £20 QL is a bit high, but playing with the data for today and based on the prices that have already drifted and the horses probability of winning. If you take something like a £10 QL then looks like a bit of value – not much. But bear in mind that there is still a lot of time for prices to drift out more especially with the biggest price changes going to be just before the off.

I suppose if you are selective and going off a good tipster then there might be something going on…

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MbPunter 24 September 9, 2016 at 1:55 pm

A drift to 5/2 you are still a long way from having any value. At that point you have £20 at risk to win £5.

But with minimal QLs then hard to argue it wouldn’t be profitable.

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Lucida 0 September 9, 2016 at 1:56 pm

Based on the fact a lot of price movement happens in the last 10mins why not back and lay 15mins out looking for even smaller QL. It seems to me taking early prices creates a much bigger QL and I’m not sure you would be getting a good return in potential price movement.

That’s just my initial thoughts maybe I’m wrong but could be worth looking into.

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feltt1p 6 September 9, 2016 at 4:56 pm

Generally in the last 10 minutes the prices for all horses come in at the bookies. If you get a match for minimal quali losses that means the bookies and exchange are close, so bookie will reduce odds after your bet, meaning it needs to drift twice as much for BOG.

Although I do think closer to the off than 6am (I’d probably go for an hour or two before) is preferable.

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roly24 11 September 9, 2016 at 6:39 pm

Feltt1p – in last 10 mins, prices for all horses “come in” at the bookies??? – certain ones yes – weight of money etc etc but hardly ALL. Bit of a sweeping statement and inaccurate.

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feltt1p 6 September 9, 2016 at 7:29 pm

roly, I did say ‘generally’

And yes, I think they do. Very rarely do I see outsiders drift in the last 10 minutes on books, the exchange yes but bookies tend to stick with the price. Whereas as you say, the weight of money on more fancied horses pushes the price down.

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Dave_Jones 9 September 9, 2016 at 9:01 pm

feltt1p, I have tended to see the same thing as you. I think on the exchanges the book tends to stick to around the 100% level, so if two or three of the more fancied horses are coming in. Then one or more of the less fancied horses has to go out to avoid the over round situation and maintain the 100%.

At the bookies they do not seem too bothered about having a large over round in the last few minutes, so if some horses are coming in, you often don’t see the outsiders drifting out.

Looking at what I have just written about it would seem this would create good trading opportunities wouldn’t it? I have a feeling it can’t be that simple though, so I must be missing something.

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Pickle 60 September 10, 2016 at 10:30 am

If they all come in then how did Fog get 1000 euros from BOG?

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FoG_BLoG 58 September 10, 2016 at 10:59 am

He means in general.

I think putting up early prices is a bit risky for the bookie so they allow some wiggle room. The over round could be higher like 120%. And then closer to the off prices get more competitive over round might only be 110% for sp’s.

I don’t even think what I wrote makes sense. That would imply prices go up if over round goes down. I can understand this, bookies want to have more competitive prices.

Sorry felt, I started agreeing with you and ended disagreeing with you.

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