Sky Bet-Price Boost.
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Spurs/Stoke/Southampton 7/5.9
+0December 3, 2016 at 6:38 am
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Once again, looks like it’s going to be let down by one match – I really need to stop underlaying these and just guarantee profit each week, however small.
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Sky know how to pick ’em!
A more profitable strategy would be just to lay whatever the Sky acca is each week tbh!
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Haha you might be on to something there Tony!
+0I don’t do them every week but I genuinely can’t remember the last one that won. Does anyone keep accurate records of this boost?
If I start laying this instead of backing I guarantee it will start to come in+0
Last sky boost that I won was August 26. And there has been 11 I’ve lost since.
It’s a bit of a bad run but not all that unusual (a lot are 5/1 chances so would expect maybe 2 wins in 12, so 1 win in 12 mneh). Nothing to indicate that there would be any value in just laying the acca every week!
Anyway the betmclean boost went bust too. I took it as a value bet and barca was the last leg. I was debating to punt a free bet on the draw but didn’t look like a lot of value. Could have got 10/1 on the draw. Oh well.
+0So I went back through the profit logs of this site and I can only see it winning 4 times since February 8, 2015
Thats 4 times in nearly 2 years. (There may have been other ones that went on to win but were not blogged because of poor odds, who knows?)
I’m definately taking the smaller but guaranteed profit from now on in light of this.+0
I usually just stick free bets on these. saves having to look round for good odds.
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That’s a very good idea deathstar!
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Well €1.49 max bet on the champs league boost for me. All I’ve done are the boosts and haven’t won many in ages, think I won one of the Black Friday ones but that’s it.
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Always amuses me when people lay the sky boost.
Take tonight, for example. Barca/City/Arsenal is boosted to 5.5 with Sky. There’s currently 5k sitting at 4.9 on the exchange. What do sky customers do…? They simply lay at 4.9. The objective odds should be roughly 4.20. So basically what is happening is:
1. Sky offer amazing value.
2. MBers give more than half(!) of that value back to traders on the exchange.I guess it’s easy when you have people thinking it would be profitable to lay these. It’s obviously not; there’s millions traded on individual matches and relatively tiny amounts on the accumulator market. If you knew that one of the legs was mis-priced then you would lay that leg – not the entire accumulator.
It’s of course fine to lay off your sky odds if you don’t like variance, but certainly don’t go laying these thinking it’s profitable in the long run.
+0True mark, but I use opportunities like these to get my qualification done for the weekly Sky free £5. So just backed at 5.5 and layed at 4.9 to make a small profit and I know I’ve got my £25 bet with sky out of the way. I do see what you mean though. I noticed when William Hill do their timed boost offers you can literally see the money washing through the exchange as everyone lays them off. Makes me wonder how much all the matched betters are forcing the market up.
+0Welcome back Mark,where have you been.
Some intelligence back amongst all of the dross+0
Inteligence is here don’t u worry I could have told you the same as mark does
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Mark, are you saying back but don’t lay this offer. If so, I can’t remember the last time it won. Maybe someone has the stats.
btw I just do it for the £5fb
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Ah yes, good point. I can’t remember the last time Liverpool won the league either… Should probably start laying them!
In all seriousness, it’s obviously fine to lay against your Sky bets if you’re happy to pay for the insurance and avoid variance (which is pretty high given the limited number of bets). In general, if you’re looking to go beyond matched betting, it’s a good idea to seek out as many inefficiencies (like the Sky case) as you can, allowing you to diversify and reduce overall variance – at the same time materialising any edge you have.
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