Leicester City host Arsenal in the Premier League today and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Riyad Mahrez or Mesut Ozil scores the first goal in Leicester City v Arsenal, 188BET will refund losing pre-match First/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and Half Time/Full Time bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £21.15 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 19th August 2016 and 17:30 (kick-off) today (Saturday 20th August 2016), to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying on. I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum and place my qualifying bet on Draw/Draw in the Half-Time/Full-Time market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.86…
Place £25.00 on Draw/Draw @ 6.20 = Potential profit of £130.00
Lay £22.86 on Draw/Draw @ 6.80 = Potential liability of £132.60
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Draw/Draw | + £130.00 – £132.60 = £2.60 loss |
Not Draw/Draw and Mahrez or Ozil scores first | – £25.00 + £22.40 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £21.15 profit |
Not Draw/Draw and Mahrez or Ozil doesn’t score first | – £25.00 + £22.40 = £2.60 loss |
So, if our Draw/Draw bet loses and Mahrez or Ozil scores first, we will make a nice profit of £21.15. If our Draw/Draw bet wins or Mahrez or Ozil doesn’t score first, we’ll have made a loss of £2.60. Risking £2.60 to make a profit of £21.15, gives us effective odds of 9.16, so given that Mahrez and Ozil are both odds of 9.00 to score first, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need our Draw/Draw bet to lose.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘MO25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 21st August 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.