Betway are getting in on the action this weekend with a fantastic offer on the big match. If 3 or more goals are scored in the game between Manchester United and Liverpool, Betway will refund losing bets up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £4.58 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Bets must placed at minimum odds of 1.50 (1/2) or above. We can place our qualifying bet on any market other than Total Goals, but for these offers I like to stick to the Correct Score market. We need to select a scoreline that sees less than 3 goals. This ensures that if 3 or more goals are scored, we will automatically qualify for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Betway
Place £20.00 on 0-0 draw @ 9.50 = Potential profit of £170.00
Lay £18.13 on 0-0 draw @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £172.23
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | +£170.00 – £172.23 = £2.23 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and 3 or more goals scored | -£20.00 + £17.77 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £13.77 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and less than 3 goals scored | -£20.00 + £17.77 = £2.23 loss |
As things stand, if 3 or more goals are scored, we will make a profit of £13.77, but we’ll lose £2.23 on any other outcome. By placing a further lay bet on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’, we can guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. To calculate this lay stake, we just need to divide £16.00 by the lay odds minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission. So for this bet, we need to divide £16.00 by 2.30, which gives us a lay stake of £6.96.
Lay £6.96 on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ @ 2.32 = Potential liability of £9.19
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | -£2.23 + £6.82 = £4.59 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and 3 or more goals scored | £13.77 – £9.19 = £4.58 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and less than 3 goals scored | -£2.23 + £6.82 = £4.59 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £4.58 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.