Chelsea host Manchester United in the late kick-off on Sunday and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action. If both teams score in the Chelsea v Manchester United match, Ladbrokes will refund losing First Goalscorer, Half Time/Full Time and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £7.05 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees someone keep a clean sheet. This means that if both teams score, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
The lay odds at the time of writing are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual odds after the game.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.57…
Place £25.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £162.50
Lay £19.57 on a 0-0 draw @ 9.60 = Potential liability of £168.32
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | + £162.50 – £168.32 = £5.82 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | – £25.00 + £19.18 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £14.18 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | – £25.00 + £19.18 = £5.82 loss |
So, as things stand, if both teams score, we will make a nice profit of £14.18. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £5.82.
In order to make this offer risk-free, we can place an extra lay bet on both teams scoring at Smarkets. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £5.82 (our potential loss) by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us £5.94…
Lay £5.94 on ‘Both Teams Score – Yes’ @ 2.20 = Potential liability of £7.13
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | – £5.82 + £5.82 = £0.00 |
| Not 0-0 draw and both teams score | £14.18 – £7.13 = £7.05 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and someone keeps a clean sheet | – £5.82 + £5.82 = £0.00 |
So, if someone keeps a clean sheet, we will have broken even and there’s no harm done. However, if both teams score we will have made a risk-free profit of £7.05 on this Ladbrokes offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.