The Premier League returns this weekend following the international break and there’s another Ladbrokes offer not to be missed. If both teams score in Tottenham v Liverpool, Ladbrokes will refund losing Match Odds (WDW), Correct Score, First Goalscorer and Half Time/Full Time bets up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £4.58 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Tottenham to win.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on Tottenham @ 2.40 = Potential profit of £35.00
Lay £23.81 on Tottenham @ 2.54 = Potential liability of £36.67
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Tottenham win and both teams score | +£35.00 – £36.67 = £1.67 loss |
| Tottenham win and keep a clean sheet | +£35.00 – £36.67 = £1.67 loss |
| Tottenham don’t win and both teams score | -£25.00 + £23.33 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.33 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£25.00 + £23.33 = £1.67 loss |
As things stand, if Tottenham don’t win and both teams score, we will make a profit of £18.33, but we’ll lose £1.67 on any other outcome. We now need to lay both teams to score at odds of 1.85. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £20.00 by (lay odds minus 0.02), so £20.00 divided by 1.83 gives us a lay stake of £10.93.
Lay £10.93 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 = Potential liability of £9.29
Let’s have a look at our current profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Tottenham win and both teams score | -£1.67 – £9.29 = £10.96 loss |
| Tottenham win and keep a clean sheet | -£1.67 + £10.71 = £9.04 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and both teams score | £18.33 – £9.29 = £9.04 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | -£1.67 + £10.71 = £9.04 profit |
So now as things stand, as long as the game doesn’t see Tottenham win with both teams scoring, we will make a profit of £9.04, otherwise we’ll lose £10.96. We now need to place a back bet on Tottenham winning and both teams scoring at odds of 4.50. To work out our stake, we need to divide £20.00 by 4.50, which gives us a back stake of £4.44.
Place £4.44 on ‘Tottenham to win and both teams to score’ @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £15.54
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
| Tottenham win and both teams score | -£10.96 + £15.54 = £4.58 profit |
| Tottenham win and keep a clean sheet | £9.04 – £4.44 = £4.60 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and both teams score | £9.04 – £4.44 = £4.60 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and someone keeps a clean sheet | £9.04 – £4.44 = £4.60 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £4.58 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.