This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Paddy Power. If Chelsea qualify for the Champions League semi-finals against Paris St. Germain, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £13.75! And here’s how…
I always prefer to stick to the correct score market for these type of offers and we need to select a correct score that won’t take Chelsea through to the semi-finals on aggregate. This ensures that if Chelsea qualify, we will qualify for the free bet as our initial bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Chelsea win.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on 1-0 Chelsea @ 8.00 = Potential profit of £700.00
Lay £89.39 on 1-0 Chelsea @ 9.00 = Potential liability of £715.12
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Chelsea | +£700.00 – £715.12 = £15.12 loss |
| Not 1-0 Chelsea + Chelsea qualify | -£100.00 + £84.92 + £75.00 (extract 75% from our £100.00 free bet) = £59.92 profit |
| Not 1-0 Chelsea + Chelsea don’t qualify | -£100.00 + £84.92 = £15.08 loss |
So as things stand we will make £59.92 profit if Chelsea don’t win 1-0 and they qualify. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £15.12 if they fail to qualify by any scoreline and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying ‘Chelsea to qualify’ at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £15.12 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £15.12 / 0.95 = £15.92.
Lay £15.92 on ‘Chelsea to qualify’ @ 3.90 = Potential liability of £46.17
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-0 Chelsea | -£15.12 + £15.12 = £0.00 |
| Not 1-0 Chelsea + Chelsea qualify | +£59.92 – £46.17 = £13.75 profit |
| Not 1-0 Chelsea + Chelsea don’t qualify | -£15.08 + £15.12 = £0.04 profit |
If Chelsea fail to qualify by any scoreline, we will break even, so no harm done. If they do qualify for the semi-finals, we will make a nice profit of £13.75! Easy!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.