Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If Manchester City beat Liverpool in the Premier League on Sunday, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £23.17! And here’s how…
When doing these Paddy Power free bet offers, I always prefer to stick to the correct score market for these type of offers and we need to select a correct score that isn’t a Manchester City win. This ensures that if Manchester City do beat Liverpool, we will qualify for the free bet as our initial bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-1 draw.
Step 1:
Place £100.00 on 1-1 draw @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £750.00
Lay £89.00 on 1-1 draw @ 9.60 = Potential liability of £765.40
Step 2:
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | +£750.00 – £765.40 = £15.40 loss |
| Not 1-1 draw + Man City win | -£100.00 + £84.64 + £75.00 (extract 75% from our £100.00 free bet) = £59.64 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw + Man City don’t win | -£100.00 + £84.64 = £15.36 loss |
So as things stand we will make £59.64 profit if Manchester City beat Liverpool. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £15.40 if they don’t beat Liverpool and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Manchester City at Betfair.
Step 3:
As £15.40 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £15.40 / 0.95 = £16.21.
Lay £16.21 on Manchester City @ 3.25 = Potential liability of £36.47
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | -£15.40 + £15.40 = £0.00 |
| Not 1-1 draw + Man City win | +£59.64 – £36.47 = £23.17 profit |
| Not 1-1 draw + Man City don’t win | -£15.36 + £15.40 = £0.04 profit |
If Manchester City don’t win, we will break even, so no harm done. If they do get the better of Liverpool, we will make a nice profit of £23.17! Easy!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.