Cheltenham Festival 2017 gets underway on Tuesday and Ladbrokes are running a fantastic money back offer! Simply place a bet on the selected Cheltenham race each day and if the winner is trained by Willie Mullins, Ladbrokes will refund losing stakes as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £75.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The selected races each day will be announced at 08:00 and the offer will only apply to our first bet placed on the selected race from 08:00 onwards…
Race | Time | Date |
---|---|---|
Mares’ Hurdle | 16:10 | Tuesday 14th March 2017 |
Champion Bumper | 17:30 | Wednesday 15th March 2017 |
Ryanair Chase | 14:50 | Thursday 16th March 2017 |
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle | 14:50 | Friday 17th March 2017 |
We’ll need to select a horse that isn’t trained by Willie Mullins. This ensures that if the winner is trained by Willie Mullins, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet as our qualifying bet will have lost.
The back and lay odds should tighten up as the start of the selected race draws nearer. It’s impossible to know which races will be selected by Ladbrokes. I’ll therefore use fictional odds for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in the following example to illustrate how this offer should be done each day.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. Remember, if Ladbrokes choose any of the first races each day, we pay 0% commission on those races at Smarkets!
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.94…
Place £25.00 on Ballyandy @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £87.50
Lay £23.94 on Ballyandy @ 4.70 = Potential liability of £88.57
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Ballyandy wins | + £87.50 – £88.57 = £1.07 loss |
Horse trained by Willie Mullins wins | – £25.00 + £23.94 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 free bet) = £18.94 profit |
Another horse wins | – £25.00 + £23.94 = £1.06 loss |
So, if a horse trained by Willie Mullins wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.94, otherwise we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.07. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £18.94, gives us effective odds of 18.70. Given that Willie Mullins has multiple horses running including a couple of favourites at odds of 4.50 and 6.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
With four days of racing to look forward to, this gives us an overall potential profit of £75.00+ on this Ladbrokes Cheltenham 2017 offer!
I’ll update the following table with my actual selections after each race…
Race | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mares’ Hurdle | Apple’s Jade | 4.50 | 4.80 | – £1.95 |
Champion Bumper | Cause Toujours | 6.50 | 7.00 | – £2.19 |
Ryanair Chase | Sub Lieutenant | 8.50 | 8.80 | + £18.71 |
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle | Death Duty | 3.25 | 3.20 | + £20.03 |
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing and will be valid for 7 days.
NOTE: We can make a guaranteed profit on each race by placing an extra lay bet on a Willie Mullins horse. We just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from a £25.00 free bet) by the lay odds (minus 0.02 if paying 2% commission). So, for the above example, we could lay £4.88 on Melon at odds of 4.10. This would give us £23.82 profit if another Mullins horse wins or a guaranteed £3.82 profit on any other outcome.
* As you can see, I made an overall profit of £34.60 on this Ladbrokes Cheltenham 2017 offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.