Kick-off time (GMT): 03/12/2016 : 14:30
England host Australia at Twickenham this afternoon and 188BET are getting in on the action. If Jonny May scores a try in England v Australia, 188BET will refund losing bets on all pre-match markets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.30 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
As with all player-specific promotions, it’s a good idea to wait until the starting line-ups have been announced, before placing our qualifying bets.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Friday 2nd December 2016 and 14:30 on Saturday 3rd December 2016, to be eligible.
There is no way of making this offer risk-free so only get involved if you’re comfortable with your qualifying loss.
Only losing bets will be refunded in the event that Jonny May scores a try, so we need to place our qualifying bet on a selection that we don’t think will win. We also need to place it at tight odds, in order to minimise our qualifying loss.
Jonny May plays for England, who are clear favourites to win the game. I’ve therefore decided to place my qualifying bet on Australia in the ‘1X2’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.98…
Place £25.00 on Australia @ 3.50 = Potential profit of £62.50
Lay £21.98 on Australia @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £65.95
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Australia win||+ £62.50 – £65.95 = £3.45 loss|
|Australia don't win and Jonny May scores a try||- £25.00 + £21.55 + £23.75 (extract 95% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £20.30 profit|
|Australia don't win and Jonny May doesn't score a try||- £25.00 + £21.55 = £3.45 loss|
So, if Australia don’t win and Jonny May scores a try, we will make a nice profit of £20.30 on this 188BET offer. If Australia do win or Jonny May doesn’t score a try, we’ll have made a loss of £3.45. Risking £3.45 to make a profit of £20.30, gives us effective odds of 6.88. Given that the odds of Jonny May scoring a try are only 2.10 with most bookmakers, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need Australia not to win.
Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.90 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 95% cash from our £25.00 stake refund.
To claim our stake refund, we must email the promotion code ‘JM25’, our bet ID number and our 188BET member code to firstname.lastname@example.org using our registered email address by 23:59 (GMT) on Sunday 4th December 2016. Free bets will be credited within 48 hours of a successful claim being submitted and will be valid for 30 days.