Kick-off time (GMT): 31/10/2016 : 10:15
The BNP Paribas Masters gets underway in Paris today and you don’t want to miss this Bwin offer. Simply place a £10.00 bet on each of the first 6 days of action and Bwin will boost our winnings on Sunday’s Final by 50%, as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall guaranteed profit of £7.45 and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The tournament runs for 7 days between Monday 31st October 2016 and Sunday 6th November 2016.
Here’s what we need to do:
Our percentage boost on the Final will depend on how many days we place qualifying bets…
|1 day||2 days||3 days||4 days||5 days||6 days|
So, in order to claim a 50% profit boost on Sunday’s Final, we need to place a qualifying bet on each of the first 6 days.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
So, we will lose a total of £3.00 in qualifying for our 50% profit boost.
We won’t know what odds are available until the Final line-up is complete, but the following example will give you an idea of how things might pan out.
We’ll need to make a profit of £100.00 on this bet to qualify for the maximum £50.00 free bet (50%). Free bets will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 7 days.
Say, for example, Andy Murray is odds of 3.00 to beat Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s Final…
In order to work out our required back stake, we need to divide £100.00 (required profit) by 2.00 (back odds minus 1.00 to account for our returned stake), which gives us £50.00.
We’ll need to calculate our effective odds in order to work out the correct lay stake.
So, if Andy Murray wins, our £50.00 bet will return £150.00 plus a £50.00 free bet. We can expect to extract 80% cash from our free bet, so £40.00, which gives us total returns of £190.00. To work out our effective back odds, we just divide the £190.00 by our £50.00 back stake, which gives us 3.80.
We can now enter these effective back odds into my matched betting calculator to work out the correct lay stake…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £61.69…
Place £50.00 on Andy Murray @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £50.00
Lay £61.69 on Andy Murray @ 3.10 = Potential liability of £129.55
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Andy Murray wins||+ £100.00 + £40.00 (80% of free bet) – £129.55 = £10.45 profit|
|Andy Murray doesn't win||- £50.00 + £60.45 (£61.69 minus 2% commission) = £10.45 profit|
So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a nice profit of £10.45 on our Final bet. If we take into account our total qualifying loss of £3.00, this gives us an overall guaranteed profit of £7.45 on this Bwin offer.
NOTE: Please be aware that Bwin and Smarkets have different retirement rules for tennis. If a player retires before the end of the first set, bets are valid at Bwin and bets are void at Smarkets. This means that you could end up losing out if your player retires before the end of the first set. On the other hand, if your player’s opponent retires before the end of the first set, you’ll make a nice profit. An alternative to running the risk, would be to dutch your bet with another bookmaker who have the same retirement rules as Bwin.
* I actually placed my Final bet on Andy Murray to win 2-0 at back odds of 1.55 and lay odds of 1.60, giving me an overall guaranteed profit of £14.79 on this Bwin offer. *