Sequential Lay
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I created a spreadsheet to calculate risk free sequential lay stakes for enhanced accumulators.
I coloured it in and tidied it up a bit this morning so that I can share it here. Someone might find it useful, or not, I don’t know!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WiitigPlD_9QVblKMKAWlpdsZn3w0iNsyvscVAZZx4Q/edit?usp=sharing
I am sure ppl have their own version that are much better etc. And its probably been done a hundred times but you never know it might help someone.
+1February 15, 2016 at 11:53 am
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Thank you this is perfect ?
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Nicely done FOG, though I think people will need to edit the bookie stake field from time to time. I’m actually in the process of putting together a calculator for these enhanced odds offers as they seem to popping up every week now!
+0Very nice Fog, cheers. Had something similar but this is far more polished.
+0Thanks 🙂
+0Good man FOG – great shout well done mate
+0Great job!
What I would change (and changed on mine) is having “break even stake” and “used stake”. By default the used stake is just pointing to break even stake but if I want to lock profit earlier I can input a different amount without screwing up the formulas.+0Similar to dekoder. If I want to guarantee profit, I have a bit that tells me the effective back odds of the final leg. Along with the total stake up to that point.
I also have the combined odds taking in to account commission.
+0Nice job FOG thanks for sharing.
+0how do you work it out to lock in profit?
Thanks
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Very well done FOG i did suggest this to Matt actually at the weekend so hopefully this can get implemented into the main site when Matt gets time! I do agree it would be nice if there was an option which told you how much to lay on the last leg to guarantee no matter what…I struggle to work this out and therefore just tend to underlay again which might not always be the best plan (even thought it probaly works out the same over time)
+0I’m sure it’s possible to make a formula in excel to calculate an even profit before the last leg (or earlier) but I just do it manually by increasing the lay stake and excel calculates both win & lose outcomes.
+0For the final leg, effective back odds is just the returns on bookie bet divided by total staked up to that point (original back + 1st + 2nd … leg liabilities). I don’t have it automated beyond that, but from there you have stake, back, and lay odds which you just put in to a standard calculator as an arb.
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
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Does sound right to me, guess previous times ive just been lazy/didn’t want to cock it up!
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Good man the Fog!
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Good work FoG – your disclaimer looks very familiar to me!! haha 😉
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