Value on horse offers (not matched betting)

I know some of u are more into value betting so wanted to seek thoughts, experience, records etc on some of the horse offers purely as value. Obviously exposes you to variance

The way I see it u back a horse then-
Price shortens long term you profit
Price stays same or drifts (and you get sp) then long term you lose due to bookie over round
BUT some of the offers I think should leave you long term profit anyway-

Mb2nd – I think there is value in this all day long

Mb2nd to favourite – not sure there is so much merit in big fields where the 2 shortest priced are around 5’s, but where you can back a 2nd favourite less than this it seems good

Other offers such as high 5 – could well shift the bet to having value, maybe depending on choosing wisely.

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betman
41

January 24, 2017 at 7:08 pm

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Pickle 57 January 24, 2017 at 11:14 pm

The way I see it u back a horse then-
Price shortens long term you profit
Price stays same or drifts (and you get sp) then long term you lose due to bookie over round

I dont really understand this. Assuming you get the same amount of winners then surely you win more when the price goes out not in?

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betman 41 January 25, 2017 at 6:47 am

Assuming the markets are perfect pricing wise then you should win more when it comes in
Eg back a horse at 2-1 and it shortens to evens. In theory you should win almost every other time (factoring in over round) so will make long term profits

Back a horse at evens and it drifts to 2-1. In theory you should win almost 1 time in 3, but even with BOG you need to be hitting 1 in 3 to break even- the overground is what’s costing you long term.

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FoG_BLoG 47 January 25, 2017 at 10:52 am

When I think about value of an offer its the same whether you matched bet it or not.

So whether you are matched betting or not check the exchanges, check the qualifying loss, check the free bet extraction, have some estimate of how likely the horse is to come 2nd, fall, 2nd to sp, get BOG etc. Work out effective odds and see if you are getting value.

If the value is not there to matched bet the offer then it won’t be a value bet either. If the value is there, then by taking value bets you are saving commission and money lost to exchange over time. But obviously its gambling and you can lose every single bet no matter …

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betman 41 January 25, 2017 at 7:17 pm

Agreed as a theory when exchange markets formed, but I was looking further back into the early prices
With BOG you should only be exposed to the bookies over round, say a 10% long term loss. (Unless picking long odds bums where the exchange values them way further out). If your horse hits the offer 1 time in 8 (based on extracting freebet) then that should balance out the over round long term.

Seems to stack up in my head at least, but like you say is gambling so have to absorb variance. Not ideal if you screw up bet timings for bog and hit nothing else like I did today!!

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Pickle 57 January 25, 2017 at 7:54 pm

I had several hundred on a small arb today @ 15/8 that drifted to 2/1 which was nice 😉

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Johnbo 14 January 30, 2017 at 8:02 pm

Ive been reviewing my accounts of late and i would have had more profit backing outright on arb bets.

For example, at stan james, i placed 219 arbs before they closed my account.

Level stakes betting yielded a profit of +35% roi.

The average arb return was about +12%.

Interestingly, the higher the price, the more profitable the selections were.

Variance however is crazy, as at one point there were 27 losing bets in a row and in a bigger sample, im sure it could be higher.

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Pickle 57 January 30, 2017 at 8:29 pm

Yeah last couple of days I’ve ran out of money in smarkets and can’t put anymore in until I get some back off a bookie. Guaranteed if I hadn’t been laying it would have been a time when they didn’t win.

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matchedem
Blocked
10 January 31, 2017 at 7:23 am

How are peeps still running out of money on the exchange!

Rule number one in the matchedem book (coming out soon)…organization

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deathstar 25 January 31, 2017 at 12:33 pm

a more pressing question – how did Johnbo place 219 arbs on stan james? 🙂

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Pickle 57 January 31, 2017 at 4:01 pm

Easy Matchedem by putting a few decent bets on and them all winning. Not surprisingly today ive managed to lose £2300 to exchange.

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