It’s Week 12 of the Premier League Darts 2018 tonight and the bookies are getting in on the action! There are some great offers available each week, so provided we minimise our qualifying losses, we stand a great chance of making some big profits and here’s how…
Available Offers:
| Bookie | Offer |
|---|---|
| Betway | Bets settled as a winner (up to £25.00) if your selection loses 7-5 |
| BoyleSports | Double winnings (max. stake £20.00) if your selection wins with a 100+ checkout |
| Paddy Power | Money back (up to £10.00) on Correct Score and #WhatOddsPaddy bets if the match ends in a draw |
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
The strategy is the same for all three offers. We just need to select players with tight back and lay odds in order to minimise our qualifying losses and hope we hit the money back/double winnings triggers.
Here are the eligible matches for Week 12 (Thursday 26th April 2018)…
| Time | Match |
|---|---|
| 19:15 | Peter Wright v Michael Smith |
| 19:55 | Daryl Gurney v Michael van Gerwen |
| 20:35 | Simon Whitlock v Gary Anderson |
| 21:05 | Raymond van Barneveld v Rob Cross |
| 21:45 | Michael Smith v Michael van Gerwen |
The following example is for the Betway offer. Having looked at the odds available for Peter Wright v Michael Smith, we could place our qualifying bet on Michael Smith.
We need to stake just enough to return £25.00 in the event that Michael Smith loses 7-5. In order to work out our back stake, we need to divide £25.00 by 1.75 (back odds minus 1.00). This gives us a back stake of £14.29. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £15.00 instead.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £15.00…
Place £15.00 on Michael Smith @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £26.25
Lay £15.00 on Michael Smith @ 2.80 = Potential liability of £27.00
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Michael Smith wins | + £26.25 – £27.00 = £0.75 loss |
| Michael Smith loses 7-5 | – £15.00 + £25.00 + £14.25 (£15.00 minus 5% commission) = £24.25 profit |
| Michael Smith doesn’t win by other scoreline | – £15.00 + £14.25 = £0.75 loss |
So, if Michael Smith loses 7-5, we’ll make a nice profit of £24.25. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £0.75. Risking £0.75 to make a profit of £24.25, gives us effective odds of 33.33. So, given that the odds of Michael Smith losing 7-5 are 9.00 (8/1), this is a profitable offer in the long run.
I’ll update the following tables with some actual selections after the matches have been played…
Betway Offer
| Match | Selection | Stake | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wright v Smith | Smith | £15.00 | 2.75 | 2.80 | £0.75 | £24.25 |
BoyleSports Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wright v Smith | Smith | 2.80 | 2.78 | £0.50 | £26.50 |
Paddy Power Offer
| Match | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – | – | – |
* No bonus/refund triggers were hit, resulting in a loss of £1.25 on these Premier League Darts offers. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.