Another fantastic Paddy Power free bet offer. If the World Cup match between Uruguay and England is won by Uruguay, Paddy Power will refund all losing First/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on that match as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £8.23 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that isn’t a Uruguay win. This ensures that if Uruguay win the game, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 2-1 England win.
Place £100.00 on 2-1 England @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £800.00
Lay £86.12 on 2-1 England @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £818.14
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 England | +£800.00 – £818.14 = £18.14 loss |
| Not 2-1 England and Uruguay win | -£100.00 + £81.82 + £80.00 (extract 80% from our £100.00 free bet) = £61.82 profit |
| Not 2-1 England and Uruguay don’t win | -£100.00 + £81.82 = £18.18 loss |
So as things stand we will make £61.82 profit if the match is won by Uruguay. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £18.18 on any other result and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying a Uruguay win at Betfair. We need to divide £18.18 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £19.14.
Lay £19.14 on Uruguay @ 3.80 = Potential liability of £53.59
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 2-1 England | -£18.14 + £18.18 = £0.04 profit |
| Not 2-1 England and Uruguay win | £61.82 – £53.59 = £8.23 profit |
| Not 2-1 England and Uruguay don’t win | -£18.18 + £18.18 = £0.00 |
So if Uruguay beat England, we will make a nice profit of £8.23! If Uruguay don’t win the match, we will break even and so no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £100.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.