It’s Super Bowl 51 tonight and you don’t want to miss this Winner offer! Simply bet £10.00+ on New England Patriots v Atlanta Falcons, and Winner will give us a £10.00 free bet to be used in play on the game. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.68 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1.50 (1/2) or greater, between 13:00 on Saturday 4th February 2017 and 23:30 (kick-off) on Sunday 5th February 2017, to be eligible.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on New England Patriots in the ‘Match Result’ market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.88…
Place £10.00 on New England Patriots @ 1.67 = Potential profit of £6.70
Lay £9.88 on New England Patriots @ 1.71 = Potential liability of £7.02
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Patriots win | + £6.70 – £7.02 = £0.32 loss |
| Patriots don’t win | – £10.00 + £9.68 (£9.88 minus 2% commission) = £0.32 loss |
So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose £0.32 in qualifying for our £10.00 free in play bet.
Free Bet:
Our £10.00 free bet will be credited following placement of our qualifying bet and must be used in play on New England Patriots v Atlanta Falcons. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
It’s impossible to know what odds will be available until the match has kicked off but by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 70% of the £10.00 free bet as cash, so £7.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.32, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.68 on this Winner offer!
Extracting profit from our free bet can be a little tricky when betting in play. If you place your free bet and then something happens in the game that changes the lay odds, it will affect your profit one way or the other.
Having said that, there are plenty of stoppages in NFL, so we should look to get our bets on then, so that the odds don’t fluctuate as much as when the game is live.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.