Another fantastic Paddy Power offer. Simply place a bet on Manchester United or Arsenal to win the match and if it’s a draw, Paddy Power will give us our money back as a free bet up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed minimum profit of £9.72 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
It’s entirely up to you which team you place your qualifying bet on but having looked at the odds available at the time of writing, Manchester United give us the lowest qualifying loss.
Place £50.00 on Man Utd @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £75.00
Lay £51.44 on Man Utd @ 2.48 = Potential liability of £76.13
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
Man Utd win | +£75.00 – £76.13 = £1.13 loss |
Draw | -£50.00 + £48.87 + £40.00 (extract 80% from our £50.00 free bet) = £38.87 profit |
Arsenal win | -£50.00 + £48.87 = £1.13 loss |
So as things stand we will make £38.87 profit if the match is drawn. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose £1.13 on any other result. It’s not often we are able to do this, but by placing a further lay bet on the draw, we can guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome!
If the odds have changed and you want to know how to calculate the lay stake, please see the bottom of this post.
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
Man Utd win | -£1.13 + £10.86 = £9.73 profit |
Draw | £38.87 – £29.15 = £9.72 profit |
Arsenal win | -£1.13 + £10.86 = £9.73 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £9.72!
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £50.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
I’m often asked how I calculate the stake for the extra lay bet on the draw in order to guarantee fairly even profits on all three outcomes. I promised that I would post a formula for working this out, so for those of you that don’t mind a little algebra, here’s how it’s done…
Draw profit + Man Utd/Arsenal loss = (Draw lay odds – 0.05) x lay stake
38.87 + 1.13 = (3.55 – 0.05) x lay stake
40.00 = 3.50 x lay stake
lay stake = 40.00 / 3.50
lay stake = 11.43
So if the odds have changed by the time you read this blog post, just alter the figures accordingly.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.