It’s Argentina v Croatia on Thursday night and you don’t want to miss this 188BET offer! If Lionel Messi scores first in Argentina v Croatia, 188BET will refund our first losing mobile bet in cash, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £23.58 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed via mobile between 00:01 on Wednesday 20th June 2018 and 19:00 (kick-off) on Thursday 21st June 2018, to be eligible.
Only our first losing bet is refunded in the event that Messi scores first, so we need to select something that we don’t think will come in. We can place our qualifying bet on any market. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw in the ‘1 X 2‘ market.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.07…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.35 = Potential profit of £58.75
Lay £24.07 on a draw @ 3.50 = Potential liability of £60.17
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Draw | + £58.75 – £60.17 = £1.42 loss |
| Not a draw and Messi scores first | – £25.00 + £23.58 + £25.00 (cash refund) = £23.58 profit |
| Not a draw and Messi doesn’t score first | – £25.00 + £23.58 = £1.42 loss |
So, if the match isn’t drawn and Messi scores first, we’ll make a nice profit of £23.58. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.42. Risking £1.42 to make a profit of £23.58, gives us effective odds of 17.61. So, given that Messi is odds of just 4.00 to score first, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash refund will be credited automatically by 12:00 on Friday 22nd June 2018.
* Lionel Messi didn’t score first and Croatia won the match 3-0, resulting in a loss of £1.42 on this 188BET offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.