England face Russia in their opening Euro 2016 group match on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the First/Last/Anytime Goal Scorer markets for England v Russia, and if our winning selection scores again, Betfair will treble our winnings. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.73 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on either the First, Last or Anytime Goal Scorer markets. If our selection wins and then scores again, Betfair will treble our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to triple odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Goal Scorer at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £100.00 in free bets, if he scores again.
As you know, I like to lay my Betfair Sportsbook bets at Smarkets, but unfortunately Smarkets don’t yet offer goal scorer markets. With that in mind, I’ll be looking to lay my bets at the Ladbrokes Exchange.
At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor but these should improve in the run up to kick-off. I’ll therefore use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the game.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.98…
Place £10.00 on Kane to score anytime @ 2.20 = Potential profit of £12.00
Lay £8.98 on Kane to score anytime @ 2.50 = Potential liability of £13.47
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Kane scores 1 | + £12.00 – £13.47 = £1.47 loss |
| Kane scores 2 or more | + £12.00 – £13.47 + £19.20 (80% extracted from £24.00 free bet) = £17.73 profit |
| Kane doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.53 = £1.47 loss |
So, if Harry Kane scores 2 or more goals, we’ll make a nice profit of £17.73 on this Betfair offer! If he fails to score 2 or more goals, we’ll have made a small loss of £1.47. Risking £1.47 to make £17.73 profit, gives us effective odds of 13.06, so given that the odds on Harry Kane scoring two or more goals are 6.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I gave this offer a miss as I was unable to find any suitable back and lay odds. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.