It’s Week 26 of the Premier League 2016/17 and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer. Place a pre-match single bet on the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market in any Premier League match this weekend, and if our winning selection scores again, Betfair will double our odds on that market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £50.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This weekend’s eligible matches are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Swansea City | 15:00 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough | 15:00 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| Everton v Sunderland | 15:00 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| Hull City v Burnley | 15:00 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| West Brom v Bournemouth | 15:00 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| Watford v West Ham United | 17:30 | Saturday 25th February 2017 |
| Tottenham v Stoke City | 13:30 | Sunday 26th February 2017 |
| Leicester City v Liverpool | 20:00 | Monday 27th February 2017 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bet must be placed pre-match on either the First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer market. If our selection wins and then scores again, Betfair will double our odds. Winnings will be paid in cash at the normal price and then topped up to double odds with free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Goalscorer at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £50.00 in free bets, if he scores again.
It’s best that we place our qualifying bets on the First Goalscorer market as this gives us the best effective odds.
The terms state this offer is limited to one per person. This just means that we can only use one account for this offer, so we’re okay to bet on multiple matches (live chat).
It’s entirely up to you which matches you place your qualifying bets on. At the time of writing, the lay odds are pretty poor, so I’ll use fictional odds for Chelsea v Swansea in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the matches have been played.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.77…
Place £10.00 on Diego Costa @ 3.40 = Potential profit of £24.00
Lay £9.77 on Diego Costa @ 3.50 = Potential liability of £24.43
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Costa scores first and then doesn’t score again | + £24.00 – £24.43 = £0.43 loss |
| Costa scores first and then scores again anytime | + £24.00 – £24.43 + £19.20 (80% extracted from £24.00 free bet) = £18.77 profit |
| Costa doesn’t score first | – £10.00 + £9.57 = £0.43 loss |
So, if Diego Costa scores first and then scores again anytime, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.77. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.43. Risking £0.43 to make a profit of £18.77, gives us effective odds of 44.65, so given that the odds on Diego Costa scoring two or more goals are only 3.25, this is a very profitable offer in the long run, even though we need him to score the first goal.
This offer is available on all eight matches. It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bets on. I’ll update the following table with my actual selections once the matches have been played…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Swansea City | – | – | – | – | – |
| Palace v Middlesbrough | – | – | – | – | – |
| Everton v Sunderland | – | – | – | – | – |
| Hull City v Burnley | – | – | – | – | – |
| West Brom v Bournemouth | – | – | – | – | – |
| Watford v West Ham | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tottenham v Stoke City | Kane | 3.80 | 3.85 | £0.28 | £22.12 |
| Leicester City v Liverpool | – | – | – | – | – |
Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of each match ending and will be valid for 48 hours. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.