Premier League football returns on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Betfair Sportsbook offer! Simply place a £25.00 bet on any player in the Premier League Top Goalscorer market and Betfair will give us a £5.00 free bet for every game he scores in, between now and Christmas. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £28.04 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed on the Premier League 2016-17 Top Goalscorer market between Monday 1st August 2016 and Wednesday 31st August 2016, to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Zlatan Ibrahimovic of Manchester United.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.47…
Place £25.00 on Zlatan Ibrahimovic @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £200.00
Lay £21.47 on Zlatan Ibrahimovic @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £203.96
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
| Ibrahimovic top scores | + £200.00 – £203.96 = £3.96 loss |
| Ibrahimovic doesn’t top score | – £25.00 + £21.04 (£21.47 minus 2% commission) = £3.96 loss |
So, regardless of who finishes as top goalscorer, we will lose £3.96 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
Free Bets:
For every game that Zlatan Ibrahimovic scores in, between now and Christmas, we will receive a £5.00 free bet within 24 hours. Free bets will be valid for 48 hours and the free bet stake is not returned with any winnings.
If Ibrahimovic were to score in 8 of Manchester United’s 17 fixtures, we would receive £40.00 worth (8 x £5.00) of free bets, from which we would extract 80% as cash, so £32.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £3.96, this gives us a potential profit of £28.04 on this Betfair Sportsbook offer!
NOTE: If you do not wish to have funds tied up in your Smarkets account for the duration of the season, you could let your back bet run as a punt. Ibrahimovic should score enough goals to cover your £25.00 stake and if he finishes as top scorer, you’ll make a nice profit of £200.00 in addition to the free bets.
If you do want to lay your selection, it’s worth pointing out that if we select different players for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, this will help reduce our overall liability at Smarkets and if one of our selections wins, we will not pay quite as much commission as we only pay commission on net profits.
* Ibrahimovic didn’t finish as top goalscorer but scored in 8 Premier League matches between the start of the season and Christmas, meaning I made a profit of £28.04 on this Betfair offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.