Betfair Sportsbook Offer – Germany v England

England face Germany on Saturday night in a warm-up for Euro 2016, and Betfair are offering to double our winnings on our Correct Score bets. Place a pre-match correct score bet on Germany v England and if our bet wins, Betfair will double our profit if the match is a draw at half-time. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £58.35 and here’s how…

Betfair Offer - Germany v England

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

In order to be eligible for this offer, our £10.00 (max.) qualifying bets must be placed pre-match on the Correct Score market of the selected games. Only our first cash bet on the market will qualify. If the teams are drawing at half-time and our Correct Score bet goes on to win, Betfair will double our profit by paying the extra winnings as free bets. So, for example, if we place £10.00 on a winning Correct Score at odds of 6.00 (5/1), we would receive £60.00 in cash and £50.00 in free bets if the teams had been drawing at half-time.

We already know that by using straightforward matched betting, we can extract 80% cash from any free bet.

At the time of writing, the lay odds at Smarkets are pretty poor, but they’ll tighten up as the game draws nearer. Using the Betfair Exchange odds as a guide, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 2-1 Germany win.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission. It’s also a very bad idea to place back bets on the Betfair Sportsbook and then lay them off on the Betfair Exchange for obvious reasons.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.52…

betfair

Place £10.00 on 2-1 Germany @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £75.00

smarkets white

Lay £8.52 on 2-1 Germany @ 10.00 = Potential liability of £76.65

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

2-1 Germany and not drawing at half-time + £75.00 – £76.65 = £1.65 loss
2-1 Germany after drawing at half-time + £75.00 + £60.00 (extracted from £75.00 free bet) – £76.65 = £58.35 profit
Not 2-1 Germany – £10.00 + £8.35 (£8.74 minus 2% commission) = £1.65 loss

So, if Germany win 2-1, having been level at half-time, we will make a rather nice profit of £58.35. Any other outcome and we’ll have lost £1.65. Risking £1.65 to make a profit of £58.35, gives us effective odds of 36.38, so given the fact that the odds of a 2-1 Germany win are only 8.50, this is a very profitable offer over time. Of course, the half-time score has to be a draw, but with a final score of 2-1, there’s every chance the teams could be 0-0 or 1-1 at half-time.

Free bets will be credited within 12 hours of the match ending and if you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from any free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.