Wales face Portugal in the Stade de Lyon tonight and Bwin are getting in on the action. Simply place a bet on Portugal v Wales and if our bet is a winner, Bwin will add 25% extra to our winnings, if there are over 3.5 goals in the match. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.01 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets can be placed on any pre-match market to be eligible.
The 25% extra winnings will be credited in the form of a free bet and the maximum free bet amount we can receive is £25.00. We therefore need to win £100.00 in order to receive the full £25.00 free bet.
Having looked at the other odds available, I’ve decided to place my qualifying bet on Portugal to win at back odds of 2.20. In order to work out how much we need to stake, we just need to divide £100.00 by 1.20 (back odds minus 1), which equals £83.33. I’ve decided to round the stake to £90.00 as an odd amount such as £83.33 may look a little suspect!
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £90.83…
Place £90.00 on Portugal @ 2.20 = Potential profit of £108.00
Lay £90.83 on Portugal @ 2.20 = Potential liability of £108.99
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Portugal win and under 3.5 goals | + £108.00 – £108.99 = £0.99 loss |
Portugal win and over 3.5 goals | + £108.00 – £108.99 + £20.00 (extract 80% of £25.00 free bet) = £19.01 profit |
Portugal don’t win | – £90.00 + £89.01 = £0.99 loss |
So, if Portugal win and there are 4 or more goals in the game, we will make a nice profit of £19.01 on this Bwin offer. If Portugal don’t win or there are 3 or less goals in the game, we’ll have made a loss of £0.99. Risking £0.99 to make a profit of £19.01, gives us effective odds of 20.20, so given that the odds of over 3.5 goals being scored are 4.50, I’m sure you’ll agree, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited by 18:00 on Thursday 7th July 2016 and will be valid for 3 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from our £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.