Manchester United visit Stamford Bridge on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! Simply place a bet on Chelsea v Manchester United and if the game is a draw, Ladbrokes will refund losing Correct Score, First Player To Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00 per market. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £10.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 08:00 on Wednesday 19th October 2016 and 16:00 (kick-off) on Sunday 23rd October 2016, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that doesn’t see the match being drawn. This ensures that if the match is drawn, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. At the time of writing, the lay odds are poor, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with my actual selection after the match.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.55…
Place £25.00 on Chelsea/Chelsea @ 3.50 = Potential profit of £62.50
Lay £22.55 on Chelsea/Chelsea @ 3.90 = Potential liability of £65.40
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Chelsea/Chelsea | + £62.50 – £65.40 = £2.90 loss |
| Not Chelsea/Chelsea and match is a draw | – £25.00 + £22.10 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.10 profit |
| Not Chelsea/Chelsea and match isn’t a draw | – £25.00 + £22.10 = £2.90 loss |
So, as things stand, if the match is a draw, we will make a profit of £17.10. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £2.90.
We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on the match being a draw. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential loss of £2.90 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.96…
Lay £2.96 on a draw @ 3.40 = Potential liability of £7.10
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Chelsea/Chelsea | – £2.90 + £2.90 = £0.00 |
| Not Chelsea/Chelsea and match is a draw | + £17.10 – £7.10 = £10.00 profit |
| Not Chelsea/Chelsea and match isn’t a draw | – £2.90 + £2.90 = £0.00 |
So, if the game isn’t drawn, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, the game is drawn, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £10.00.
If the game is drawn, our free bet will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.