£11.53
Potential Profit
£11.53
Actual Profit

Paddy Power Sunderland vs Southampton Money-Back Special


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 18/01/2014 12:45pm

This is another great offer from Paddy Power.  If any Premier League match ends in a draw this weekend, Paddy Power will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast bets on that match, up to a maximum of £50.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £11.53!  And here’s how…

The terms of this promotion state that the maximum refund of £50.00 per customer is the maximum refund for the whole promotion.  This means that as soon as we have claimed a £50.00 refund on one match, we are no longer eligible for a refund on any other matches.  It therefore makes sense to start with Saturday’s early game between Sunderland and Southampton.  If the game is drawn, we can bank our profit and forget about the rest of the weekend’s games, however, if the game isn’t drawn, we can try again on one of the 3:00pm matches.

Whenever I do these sort of money-back offers, I always stick to the correct score market.  I find the liquidity at the betting exchange is far better than goalscorer markets and I just feel more comfortable here.

We will need to select a correct score that isn’t a draw and I will explain why later.  With that in mind and having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted for a 1-0 Sunderland win.

 

Step 1:

Place £50.00 on 1-0 Sunderland @ Paddy Power @ 9.5 = Potential profit of £425.00.

Lay £41.48 on 1-0 Sunderland @ Betfair @ 11.5 = Potential liability of £435.54.

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 Sunderland£425.00 – £435.54 = -£10.54
Draw+£39.41 (£41.48 minus 5% commission) *Our £50.00 stake is refunded
Not Draw or 1-0-£50.00 + £39.41 = -£10.59

 

So as things stand we will win £39.41 if the game ends as a draw!  Unfortunately we also stand to lose just over £10.00 if the game doesn’t end in a draw and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying the draw at Betfair.  If we had selected a correct score that was a draw such as 0-0 or 1-1, it would make the next step a lot more complicated.

 

Step 3:

As £10.59 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our draw lay stake by taking commission into consideration.  £10.59 / 0.95 = £11.15.

Lay £11.15 on the draw @ Betfair @ 3.50 = Potential liability of £27.88.

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

1-0 Sunderland-£10.54 + £10.59 = £0.05 profit
Draw£39.41 – £27.88 = £11.53 profit
Not Draw or 1-0-£10.59 + £10.59 = £0.00

 

So, if the game isn’t drawn we break even (and we try again on a 3:00pm game), but if the game is drawn we make £11.53 profit for very little work!

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