It’s Poland v Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on either Poland or Italy to win and if the game is a draw, SportPesa will refund half of our stake as a bonus, up to a maximum of £15.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £10.61 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- The minimum stake is £5.00.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Saturday 13th October 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Sunday 14th October 2018.
- If the match is a draw, SportPesa will return half of our stake as a bonus, up to a maximum of £15.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which team you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Italy.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £29.20…
Place £30.00 on Italy @ 2.55 = Potential profit of £46.50
Lay £29.20 on Italy @ 2.64 = Potential liability of £47.88
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Italy win | + £46.50 – £47.88 = £1.38 loss |
| Draw | – £30.00 + £28.61 + £12.00 (extract 80% from £15.00 bonus) = £10.61 profit |
| Poland win | – £30.00 + £28.61 = £1.39 loss |
So, if the game is a draw, we’ll have made a profit of £10.61. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £1.39. Risking £1.39 to make a profit of £10.61 gives us effective odds of 8.63. So, given that the odds are just 3.15 (43/20) for the game to be drawn, this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our £15.00 bonus will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 5 days.
The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% cash from a free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Italy won the match 1-0, resulting in a loss of £1.38 on this SportPesa offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.