£35.19
Potential Profit
£0.00
Actual Profit

Real Madrid v PSG Offer – Coral


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 14/02/2018 19:45

It’s Real Madrid v PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday and you don’t want to miss this Double Winnings offer from Coral. Simply place a £5.00+ win single on the 90 minute Match Betting market for Real Madrid v PSG and if our selected team wins both halves, Coral will double our winnings up to £50.00, in free bets! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £35.19 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Real Madrid v PSG offer from Coral

The Strategy:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Tuesday 13th February 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Wednesday 14th February 2018, to be eligible.

To qualify, we must place a £5.00+ Single bet on the 90 minute win-draw-win market. If our team wins the first half and then goes on to win the second half, Coral will double our winnings in free bets.

NOTE: The To Win Both Halves and Half-Time/Full-Time markets are different. A team can be leading at half-time and full-time without having won both halves, as shown in the following table…

HT/FT ScoresWin Both HalvesHalf-Time/Full-Time
0-0/1-0NoNo
1-0/1-0NoYes
1-0/2-0YesYes

Example:

  • Bet £20.00 on PSG in the 90 minute Match Betting market (£20.00 placed at 17/10).
  • PSG are leading 1-0 at half-time and go on to win the second half 1-0 also, giving a full-time score of 2-0 to PSG.
  • Our bet on PSG has won, returning £54.00 (£20.00 stake and £34.00 winnings).
  • Within 24 hours of bet settlement, Coral will credit our account with a free bet, matching our winnings (£34.00 in this example).

The maximum free bet is £50.00 per customer and this will be credited within 24 hours of our bet being settled. Free bets will be valid for 4 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

Qualifying bet:

It’s entirely up to you which team you go for. At the time of writing the lay odds are not quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Real Madrid in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the match.

In order to work out our back stake, we need to divide £50.00 by 1.35 (back odds minus 1.00). This gives us a back stake of £37.04. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £40.00 instead.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £39.66…

coral logo

Place £40.00 on Real Madrid @ 2.35 = Potential profit of £54.00

Lay £39.66 on Real Madrid @ 2.42 = Potential liability of £56.31

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Real Madrid win the match but not both halves+ £54.00 – £56.31 = £2.31 loss
Real Madrid win the match having won both halves+ £54.00 – £56.31 + £37.50 (75% extracted from £50.00 free bet) = £35.19 profit
Real Madrid don't win the match- £40.00 + £37.67 = £2.33 loss

So, if Real Madrid win both halves, we’ll make a nice profit of £35.19. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £2.33. Risking £2.33 to make a profit of £35.19, gives us effective odds of 16.10. So, given that Real Madrid are odds of just 7.50 to win both halves, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

NOTE: We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on our selected team to ‘win both halves’ on the Betfair Exchange. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our potential qualifying loss by 0.95 (to account for the 5% commission).

If the odds are decent pre-match or if our selection is winning at half-time, we can actually overlay to guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. To calculate our overlay stake, we would just need to divide the amount we can expect to extract from our free bet by the lay odds (minus 0.05 to account for the 5% commission). So, using the above figures as an example, if the lay odds were 6.00, we would divide £37.50 by 5.95, giving us an overlay stake of £6.31 and a guaranteed profit of £3.64.

* I was unable to find a suitable qualifying bet, so I decided to give this offer a miss. The first half was drawn 1-1 and Real Madrid won the second half 2-0, giving a final score of 3-1 to Real Madrid. *

Comments


  1. MART97

    If you place an extra lay bet to make the offer risk free, surely if the back bet wins you will lose the 2 lay bets and you will be £50 down?

    Can someone explain how this would work?

    1. Matt

      Looking at the example in the ‘NOTE’ at the bottom of the post…

      Real Madrid win the match but not both halves > + £54.00 – £56.31 + £5.99 (£6.31 minus 5% commission) = £3.68 profit
      Real Madrid win the match having won both halves > + £54.00 – £56.31 + £37.50 (75% extracted from £50.00 free bet) – £31.55 (liability from extra lay bet) = £3.64 profit.

      So, regardless of the outcome, we’d stand to make a guaranteed profit of £3.64.

  2. MART97

    Ah ok, cheers I just looked at this! I get it now 😁

  3. MART97

    How would it work to make the offer risk free though? I understand the overlaying but not the first part. My loss if Madrid don’t win both halves is -3.31. So I divided this by .95 to work out a lay stake of 3.48 to lay Madrid to win both halves. The lay odds are 15.5 so the liability is 50.46. My profit if they win both halves without this lay bet would be 34.19,
    however with it it would be 34.19-50.46=-16.27

    1. Matt

      You can only make the offer risk-free if the lay odds allow you to do so. Lay odds of 15.50 are far too high. Locking in a profit is something you would only really consider in play if your selected team has already won the first half.

  4. Simon

    Coral’s odds are terrible on this match, it’s only slightly more profitable long term than just betting on win both halves on the exchange and at a couple of points today when i checked it would have been more profitable betting on win both halves than doing this offer.

    1. Matt

      It was a struggle on both matches this week Simon.

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