Stan James are getting in on the weekend’s action with a great offer on the big match. If more than 2.5 goals are scored in Arsenal v Manchester United, Stan James will refund losing First/Last Goalscorer and Correct Score bets as a free bet up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £8.78 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on a correct score that doesn’t see more than 2.5 goals. This ensures that if 3 or more goals are scored, we’ll be eligible for our free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges. We can calculate our lay stakes using the matched betting calculator.
Place £25.00 on a 0-0 draw @ 12.00 = Potential profit of £275.00
Lay £19.38 on a 0-0 draw @ 15.50 = Potential liability of £281.01
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…
0-0 draw | +£275.00 – £281.01 = £6.01 loss |
Not 0-0 draw and over 2.5 goals | -£25.00 + £18.99 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £13.99 profit |
Not 0-0 draw and under 2.5 goals | -£25.00 + £18.99 = £6.01 loss |
As things stand, if more than 2.5 goals are scored in the game, we will make a profit of £13.99, but we’ll lose £6.01 on any other outcome. It’s not often we are able to do this but by laying ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ we can make this offer risk-free. To work out our lay stake, we need to divide £6.01 by 0.98 to account for the 2% commission. So, £6.01 divided by 0.98 gives us a lay stake of £6.13.
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…
0-0 draw | -£6.01 + £6.01 = £0.00 |
Not 0-0 draw and over 2.5 goals | £13.99 – £5.21 = £8.78 profit |
Not 0-0 draw and under 2.5 goals | -£6.01 + £6.01 = £0.00 |
So if less than 3 goals are scored, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, 3 or more goals are scored, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £8.78 on this offer.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.