Tottenham face a ‘must win’ game against Arsenal today and you don’t want to miss this TLCBet offer! Simply place a bet on Tottenham v Arsenal and if a red card is shown, TLCBet will refund losing First/Last Goalscorer, Exact Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.54 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 28th April 2017 and 16:30 (kick-off) on Sunday 30th April 2017, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on an Exact Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that sees the match having two or more goals. This ensures that if one or less goals are scored, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw in the Exact Score market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.01…
Place £25.00 on a 1-1 draw @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £200.00
Lay £23.01 on a 1-1 draw @ 9.80 = Potential liability of £202.48
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £200.00 – £202.48 = £2.48 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and red card shown | – £25.00 + £22.54 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.54 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and no red card shown | – £25.00 + £22.54 = £2.46 loss |
So, if the match isn’t drawn 1-1 and a red card is shown, we’ll make a nice profit of £17.54. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £2.48. Risking £2.48 to make a profit of £17.54, gives us effective odds of 8.07. So, given that the odds are 3.50 for a red card to be shown, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need any scoreline other than 1-1.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.