The World Cup 2018 is fast approaching and you don’t want to miss this Betfred offer. Simply bet £20.00+ on the World Cup Top Goalscorer and Betfred will give us a £5.00 free bet for every match in which they score during the tournament! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £25.55 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:00 on Thursday 14th June 2018, to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you which player you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Harry Kane.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until our player’s team gets knocked out. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run. Harry Kane should score in enough matches to cover some of the £20.00 stake and we could win big if he goes on to be top goalscorer.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £17.91…
Place £20.00 on Harry Kane @ 17.00 = Potential profit of £320.00
Lay £17.91 on Harry Kane @ 19.00 = Potential liability of £322.38
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Harry Kane top scores | + £320.00 – £322.38 = £2.38 loss |
| Harry Kane doesn’t top score | – £20.00 + £17.55 (£17.91 minus 2% commission) = £2.45 loss |
So, regardless of who is top goalscorer, we’ll lose a maximum of £2.45 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same player for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, we would need a huge amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different players, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one player can be top goalscorer (winnings are reduced if players finish tied), so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the player with the largest liability.
Free Bets:
For every match in which Harry Kane scores, we’ll receive a £5.00 free bet within 24 hours. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
There are 3 group matches and 4 potential knock out matches. If Harry Kane scores in all 7 matches, we’ll receive £35.00 in free bets. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £35.00 in free bets, so £28.00. If we take our maximum qualifying loss of £2.45 into account, that gives us a potential profit of £25.55 on this Betfred offer!
* Harry Kane scored in 3 different matches on his way to becoming Top Goalscorer, resulting in a profit of £9.62 on this Betfred offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.