There’s a big day of racing at Southwell on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power money back offer! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 14:20 at Southwell and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.10 and here’s how…
Key terms
- We must place our bet between 10:00 on Saturday 9th January 2021 and 14:20 (race-off) on Sunday 10th January 2021.
- Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
- If less than 7 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
- If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying bet
If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my qualifying bets guide.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
At the time of writing, the back and lay odds aren’t quite tight enough. Drew Breeze is favourite to win the race at back odds of 3.00 (2/1). I’ll use lay odds of 3.25 to illustrate how this offer works and I’ll update the bottom of this post after the race with a genuine selection.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.29…
Place £10.00 on Drew Breeze @ 3.00 = Potential profit of £20.00
Lay £9.29 on Drew Breeze @ 3.25 = Potential liability of £20.90
Outcomes
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Paddy Power | Exchange | Free Bet | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Breeze wins | + £20.00 | – £20.90 | £0.90 loss | |
| Drew Breeze finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th | – £10.00 | + £9.10 | + £8.00 | £7.10 profit |
| Drew Breeze finishes outside top 4 | – £10.00 | + £9.10 | £0.90 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.10 if Drew Breeze finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £0.90 on any other outcome. Risking £0.90 to make a profit of £7.10 gives us effective odds of 8.89, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my free bets guide for a walkthrough of how it should be done.
* Drew Breeze was available at back odds of 4.20 and lay odds of 4.60. Drew Breeze finished 3rd, resulting in a profit of £6.98 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.