There’s a big day of racing at Newbury on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 1.30 at Newbury, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.38 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 25th November 2016 and 13.30 on Saturday 26th November 2016.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Generous Ransom.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.85…
Place £25.00 on Generous Ransom @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £225.00
Lay £23.85 on Generous Ransom @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £226.62
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Generous Ransom wins | + £225.00 – £226.62 = £1.62 loss |
| Generous Ransom places 2nd 3rd or 4th | – £25.00 + £23.38 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.38 profit |
| Generous Ransom finishes outside top 4 | – £25.00 + £23.38 = £1.62 loss |
So, we will make a nice profit of £18.38 if Generous Ransom places 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £1.62 on any other outcome. Risking £1.62 to make a profit of £18.38 gives us effective odds of 12.35, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Generous Ransom was pulled up, meaning I made a loss of £1.62 on this Sky Bet offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £90,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.